Census
Demographics and the party vote
65 general electorates (2023 boundaries)
This describes places, not people.
How a party's 2023 share differed where an electorate had one typical step more of a factor, the other eight held the same.
Asian ethnicity and overseas-born move together; read them as one.
ACT Green Labour National NZ First Opportunity Te Pāti Māori Other
Tilts right: higher share; left: lower. Shorter stroke: wider 90% range. Heavy stroke: excludes zero.
| Factor | ACT | GRN | LAB | NAT | NZF | TOP | TPM | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aged 20–29 |
−1.1
|
+2.3
|
+3.0
|
−4.5
|
−0.1
|
+0.3
|
+0.2
|
−0.1
|
Aged 65 and over |
0.0
|
+0.2
|
+0.3
|
−0.6
|
+0.2
|
−0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Māori ethnicity |
+0.1
|
−0.8
|
−1.0
|
+1.0
|
+0.5
|
−0.3
|
+0.4
|
+0.2
|
Pacific ethnicity |
−2.2
|
+1.1
|
+8.4
|
−6.3
|
−0.8
|
−0.2
|
+0.3
|
−0.3
|
Asian ethnicity |
−0.5
|
−1.8
|
+1.2
|
+3.0
|
−0.8
|
−0.3
|
−0.1
|
−0.7
|
Overseas-born |
+1.5
|
−2.0
|
−6.6
|
+6.6
|
+0.3
|
−0.5
|
−0.3
|
+1.1
|
Bachelor's degree or higher |
−0.5
|
+4.9
|
+0.5
|
−3.7
|
−1.1
|
+0.7
|
+0.3
|
−1.0
|
Owner-occupied households |
−0.2
|
+0.2
|
+0.1
|
−0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Population density |
−0.7
|
+0.7
|
+1.0
|
−1.3
|
0.0
|
+0.3
|
+0.1
|
−0.1
|
Te Pāti Māori: a caution
Te Pāti Māori's vote is concentrated on the Māori roll, whose 7 electorates this page doesn't profile: a census count covers everyone living there, not the Māori-roll voters who elect them.
Accuracy on held-out electorates
With each electorate predicted from the others, the 90% range covered 89% of the held-out party shares.
| Party | Typical miss (percentage points) |
|---|---|
ACTACT |
1.3 |
GRNGreen |
2.0 |
LABLabour |
3.3 |
NATNational |
4.7 |
NZFNZ First |
0.8 |
TOPOpportunity |
0.4 |
TPMTe Pāti Māori |
0.2 |
OTHOther |
0.4 |
Electorates voting off pattern
| Electorate | Party | Actual | Expected (90% range) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tāmaki | NAT | 52.6% | 39.6% [35.6 – 43.7] | +13.0 |
| Epsom | NAT | 51.7% | 40.2% [36.1 – 44.4] | +11.5 |
| Nelson | NAT | 32.5% | 42.2% [39.7 – 44.7] | −9.7 |
| West Coast-Tasman | NAT | 33.5% | 43.0% [40.1 – 45.8] | −9.5 |
| Papakura | NAT | 52.0% | 42.5% [40.4 – 44.6] | +9.5 |
| New Lynn | NAT | 37.3% | 46.6% [44.2 – 49.1] | −9.3 |
| Remutaka | LAB | 38.3% | 29.7% [28.1 – 31.1] | +8.7 |
| Waikato | NAT | 50.4% | 41.8% [39.9 – 43.8] | +8.6 |
| Remutaka | NAT | 30.5% | 38.9% [37.3 – 40.7] | −8.5 |
| Christchurch East | NAT | 28.7% | 37.0% [33.7 – 40.5] | −8.3 |
Source: Stats NZ, 2023 Census.