The 71 electorates

Assumed winners

ACT2

Green3

Labour27

National36

Te Pāti Māori3

22 uncertain

Set by this site: each seat’s 2023 result (or its by-election), moved by each party’s poll gain or loss up to 19 October 2026. Seat polls are weighted by how far past seat polls missed.

2023 results are on the old boundaries unless marked. Margins are shares of the votes for the winner and runner-up. Estimate by The Overhang, an independent NZ elections newsletter. Runs won: how often the assumed winner takes the seat when each seat's margin also varies, over 2,000 runs.

General electorates (64)
Electorate and type	2023 result	2023 margin	2026 assumption	Assumed winner	Runs won
Auckland CentralGeneral	Greenvs National	13.3% 3,896		GreenUncertain	98%
Banks PeninsulaGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	1.1% 396	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	76%
BotanyGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	49.1% 16,323		National	over 99%
Christchurch CentralGeneral	Labourvs National	6.3% 1,841		Labour	89%
Christchurch EastGeneral	Labourvs National	8.6% 2,397		Labour	93%
CoromandelGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	52.9% 17,349		National	over 99%
DunedinGeneral	Labourvs National	30.4% 7,980		Labour	over 99%
East CapeGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	10.4% 3,199	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	50%
East Coast BaysGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	58.1% 20,353		National	over 99%
EpsomGeneral	ACTvs National	29.6% 8,142		ACTUncertain	over 99%
GlendeneGeneral	Labourvs National Estimate	8.4%		Labour	92%
Hamilton EastGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	16.4% 5,060		NationalUncertain	67%
Hamilton WestGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	22.6% 6,488		National	81%
HendersonGeneral	Labourvs National Estimate	—		Labour	—
Hutt SouthGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	3.6% 1,332	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	70%
IlamGeneral	Nationalvs Opportunity	26.5% 7,830		National	86%
InvercargillGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	31.1% 9,874		National	93%
KaikōuraGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	38.0% 11,412		National	97%
Kaipara ki MahurangiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	52.5% 19,459		National	over 99%
KapitiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour Estimate	14.5%	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	56%
KenepuruGeneral	Labourvs National Estimate	22.2%		Labour	over 99%
MāngereGeneral	Labourvs National	51.2% 11,712		Labour	100%
ManurewaGeneral	Labourvs National	28.0% 7,113		Labour	over 99%
MaungakiekieGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	15.8% 4,617		NationalUncertain	66%
Mt AlbertGeneral	Labourvs National	0.1% 18		LabourUncertain	79%
Mt MaunganuiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	49.4% 15,405		National	over 99%
Mt RoskillGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	5.3% 1,564	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	65%
NapierGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	26.3% 8,909		National	88%
NelsonGeneral	Labourvs National	0.1% 26		LabourUncertain	78%
New PlymouthGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	18.4% 6,991		NationalUncertain	71%
North ShoreGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	48.8% 16,330		National	99%
NorthcoteGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	28.7% 9,270		National	90%
NorthlandGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	23.0% 6,087		National	82%
ŌtāhuhuGeneral	Labourvs National	35.0% 7,970		Labour	over 99%
PakurangaGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	55.9% 18,710		National	over 99%
Palmerston NorthGeneral	Labourvs National	11.2% 3,087		Labour	95%
PapakuraGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	39.0% 13,519		National	99%
Port WaikatoGeneral	Nationalvs NZ First By-election	66.6% 11,432		National	100%
RangitataGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	31.2% 10,846		National	95%
RangitīkeiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	34.8% 9,785		National	96%
RemutakaGeneral	Labourvs National	24.7% 8,859		Labour	over 99%
RotoruaGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	30.0% 8,923		National	93%
SelwynGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	45.8% 19,782		National	over 99%
SouthlandGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	58.8% 17,211		National	over 99%
TaieriGeneral	Labourvs National	4.5% 1,443		Labour	88%
TakaniniGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	25.0% 8,775		National	86%
TāmakiGeneral	ACTvs National	13.2% 4,158		ACTUncertain	97%
Taranaki-King CountryGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	40.8% 14,355		National	99%
TaupōGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	49.7% 16,505		National	over 99%
TaurangaGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	32.8% 9,370		National	95%
TukitukiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	29.9% 10,118		National	93%
Upper HarbourGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	35.2% 11,192		National	96%
WaikatoGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	51.0% 18,548		National	100%
WaimakaririGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	32.0% 13,010		National	94%
WairarapaGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	7.5% 2,816	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	60%
WaitākereGeneral	Labourvs National Estimate	1.2%	Changes hands from National, which held it before the redraw	Labour	81%
WaitakiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	36.6% 12,151		National	99%
Wellington BaysGeneral	Greenvs Labour	8.9% 2,717		GreenUncertain	84%
Wellington NorthGeneral	Greenvs Labour	19.7% 6,066		Green	96%
West Coast-TasmanGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	4.0% 1,017	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	56%
WhanganuiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	17.5% 5,512		NationalUncertain	69%
WhangaparāoaGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	61.3% 23,376		National	100%
WhangāreiGeneral	Nationalvs Labour	37.8% 11,424		National	97%
WigramGeneral	Labourvs National	3.9% 1,179		Labour	86%

Māori electorates (7)Māori seats move three parts with all voters, one part with Māori-roll polls.
Electorate and type	2023 result	2023 margin	2026 assumption	Assumed winner	Runs won
Hauraki-WaikatoMāori	Te Pāti Māorivs Labour	12.7% 2,911		Te Pāti MāoriUncertain	78%
Ikaroa-RāwhitiMāori	Labourvs Te Pāti Māori	11.7% 2,874		Labour	98%
Tāmaki MakaurauMāori	Te Pāti Māorivs Labour By-election	33.9% 3,519	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	49%
Te Tai HauāuruMāori	Te Pāti Māorivs Labour	39.1% 9,162		Te Pāti MāoriUncertain	73%
Te Tai TokerauMāori	Te Pāti Māorivs Labour	2.5% 517	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	56%
Te Tai TongaMāori	Te Pāti Māorivs Labour	12.4% 2,824	Changes hands	LabourUncertain	85%
WaiarikiMāori	Te Pāti Māorivs Labour	58.6% 15,891		Te Pāti Māori	99%

The 71 electorates

Seats under 95% of runs