Banks Peninsula
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 1.1% of the top two candidates’ votes (396 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 0.5% (at least 199 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 76%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Zac Wellman | ACT |
| Kyle Turnbull | Alliance Party |
| AmyLorraine Turner | Conservative Party NZ |
| Craig Pauling | Green |
| Tracey McLellanList MP · won here 2020 · runner-up here 2023 | Labour |
| Vanessa WeeninkMP for Banks Peninsula · won here 2023 | National |
| Lesley Margaret Sales | New Zealand Loyal |
| John Stringer | NZ First |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 2 elections, 2020–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.5 points per party on average, 2020–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 4.0 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 396 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 13,156 | Labour |