Election Bench

New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November.

Polls

Every national poll this year, newest first.

The 17 polls in the average

A poll counts if the middle of its fieldwork falls in the last 90 days.

0%10%20%30%40%5% lineACT9.6%Green14.8%Labour28.0%National28.6%NZ First10.0%Opportunity6.2%Te Pāti Māori1.3%Other1.4%AverageEach dot is one poll0%10%20%30%40%5% lineACT9.6%Green14.8%Labour28.0%National28.6%NZ First10.0%Opportunity6.2%Te Pāti Māori1.3%Other1.4%Average

All polls

Party figures in percent as published, with the average's polls shaded.

National polls, newest first (party figures in %)
PollsterFieldworkSampleACTGreenLabourNationalNZ FirstOpportunityTe Pāti MāoriOtherAverageSource
Freshwater Strategy The Post 9–19 Oct Sample1,458 CountedBase not stated; treated as decided voters because the figures sum to 100%. Corrected here since first entered. Report
Verian 1News 15–19 Oct Sample1,003 CountedCorrected here since first entered. Report
Verian 1News 8–12 Oct Sample1,007 CountedOther: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Corrected here since first entered. Article
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 6–10 Oct Sample1,352 Counted Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–5 Oct Sample1,000 Counted Report
Verian 1News 1–5 Oct Sample1,001 CountedOther: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Article
Reid Research RNZ 24 Sep – 1 Oct Sample1,000 CountedCorrected here since first entered. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 31 Aug – 27 Sep Sample859 Counted Report
Verian 1News 23–27 Sep Sample1,004 CountedOther: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Article
Freshwater Strategy The Post 4–11 Sep Sample1,011 Counted Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 4–10 Sep Sample1,701 Counted Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–3 Sep Sample1,000 Counted Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 27 Jul – 23 Aug Sample858 Counted Report
Reid Research RNZ 14–21 Aug Sample1,000 CountedCorrected here since first entered. Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 1–11 Aug SampleNot published CountedIncomplete but counted. Sample size not published; 1,021 assumed. Corrected here since first entered. Report
Verian 1News 8–11 Aug Sample847 CountedOther: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Article
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–4 Aug Sample1,000 CountedCorrected here since first entered. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 29 Jun – 26 Jul Sample881 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 10–19 Jul SampleNot published Not countedOutside the 90 days. No sample size published. Report
Reid Research RNZ 2–9 Jul Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–5 Jul Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 25 May – 21 Jun Sample891 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Verian 1News 13–17 Jun Sample1,001 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Other: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Article
Freshwater Strategy The Post 5–11 Jun Sample1,038 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Corrected here since first entered. Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 1–10 Jun Sample1,021 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 4–8 Jun Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 27 Apr – 24 May Sample870 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 1–10 May SampleNot published Not countedOutside the 90 days. No sample size published. Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 3–7 May Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 30 Mar – 26 Apr Sample887 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Verian 1News 11–15 Apr Sample1,010 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Other: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Article
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 1–2 Apr Sample1,082 Not countedOutside the 90 days. We could not check these figures against the source. Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–2 Apr Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 23 Feb – 22 Mar Sample872 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Reid Research RNZ 12–20 Mar Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 2–12 Mar Sample1,059 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–3 Mar Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 27 Jan – 22 Feb Sample870 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Freshwater Strategy The Post 6–12 Feb Sample1,039 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Corrected here since first entered. Report
Verian 1News 7–11 Feb Sample1,003 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Other: the published minor-party figures added up. Figures from the pollster's report. Article
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 1–3 Feb Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Other: the published Other less Opportunity. Corrected here since first entered. Report
Roy Morgan Self-published 6–26 Jan Sample881 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Talbot Mills Corporate clients 16–26 Jan Sample1,087 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Reid Research RNZ 15–22 Jan Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report
Curia Market Research Taxpayers' Union 14–18 Jan Sample1,000 Not countedOutside the 90 days. Report

How far off could the polls be?

Each dot moves the average by one past election's final-poll miss. Past misses show how big polling errors get, not which way this one will go.