New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November.
Opportunity’s seats would take either one to 62.
| Te Pāti Māori | −1 seat |
|---|---|
| ACT + National + NZ First | was 36%, now 45% of runs with a majority |
| Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori | was 8%, now 6% of runs with a majority |
Out of every 100 simulation runs:
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
These runs keep every assumed electorate winner; seat runs and local factors mark 22 of them uncertain.
Checked polls from the last 90 days; each poll's weight halves every 14 days. No adjustment for pollster or commissioner.
| Party | Poll average | Seats | Seats, middle 80% of runs | Since 27 January |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACT | 12 | 9–15 | +2.3 | |
| Green | 18 | 14–22 | +6.1 | |
| Labour | 34 | 28–41 | −6.7 | |
| National | 36* | 36–42 | −3.1 | |
| NZ First | 12 | 9–16 | −0.8 | |
| Opportunity | 7 | 0–10 | +4.7 | |
| Te Pāti Māori | 3*† | 3 (assumed) | −1.7 | |
| Te Tai Tokerau Party | 0 | – | – | |
| Not shown separately in the poll average (counted in Other) · contesting Te Tai Tokerau | ||||
| Other | 0 | – | −0.9 | |
* National is assumed to win 36 electorates, 1 more than its share of the vote earns. Te Pāti Māori is assumed to win 3 electorates, 1 more than its share of the vote earns. They keep them, so Parliament has 122 seats, not 120.
† Te Pāti Māori is under 5% but keeps the electorates it is assumed to win.
A check, not our estimate: each poll is moved by its pollster's usual lean, then averaged the same way.
Leans are re-centred on the average pollster, not checked against election results, so this is no more accurate.
Seats and the simulation use the poll average above, unadjusted.
A pollster's share for a party is left as published if fewer than 3 of its polls report it.
Differences this small can turn on one pollster's few polls.
| Party | Poll average | Without leans | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACT | 9.6 | 9.7 | +0.1 |
| Green | 14.8 | 14.5 | −0.3 |
| Labour | 28.0 | 27.6 | −0.4 |
| National | 28.6 | 28.4 | −0.2 |
| NZ First | 10.0 | 10.3 | +0.3 |
| Opportunity | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 |
| Other | 1.4 | 1.6 | +0.2 |
Assumed winner, share of seat runs, and why.
Every group with a majority that needs all its members
Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.
Newest first, parties A to Z.