Hauraki-Waikato
Uncertain
The sitting Te Pāti Māori MP is standing again, and one Curia poll of Māori-roll voters for Whakaata Māori had her party ahead of Labour on the party vote.
The same pollster’s poll of this seat, 500 voters, 21 September – 1 October 2026, moved the estimate towards Te Pāti Māori.
- 2023 winner
- Te Pāti Māori
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 12.7% of the top two candidates’ votes (2,911 votes)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- Te Pāti MāoriAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 78%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Kingi Kiriona | Labour |
| Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-ClarkeMP for Hauraki-Waikato · won here 2023 | Te Pāti Māori |
| Neil Denby | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- Te Pāti Māori since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 10.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Te Pāti Māori 13.8 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Te Pāti Māori | 2,911 | Labour |
| 2020 | Labour | 9,660 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 9,223 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 7,695 | Labour |
| 2011 | Labour | 5,935 | Labour |
| 2008 | Labour | 888 | Labour |