Maungakiekie
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 15.8% of the top two candidates’ votes (4,617 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 7.8% (at least 2,309 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 66%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
If this seat changes hands
Estimated gap: 5.2 points, the 2023 margin (a share of the winner’s and runner-up’s votes) moved by the change in the polls since.
| Grouping | Now | If Labour wins |
|---|---|---|
| ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity | 67 | 66 |
| Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori | 62 | 62 |
| ACT + National + NZ First | 60 | 59 |
| Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori | 55 | 55 |
| Parliament | 122 | 121 |
| Majority | 62 | 61 |
Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Juan Alvarez de Lugo | ACT |
| Adam Powell | Green |
| Priyanca RadhakrishnanList MP · won here 2020 · runner-up here 2017, 2023 | Labour |
| Greg FlemingMP for Maungakiekie · won here 2023 | National |
| Keegan Langeveld | NZ First |
| Derrick Paull | Opportunity |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.4 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 2.5 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 4,617 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 635 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 2,157 | Labour |
| 2014 | National | 2,348 | National |
| 2011 | National | 3,021 | National |
| 2008 | National | 1,942 | National |
| 2005 | Labour | 6,450 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 6,603 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 2,512 | Labour |
| 1996 | National | 228 | Labour |