Election Bench

New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November.

Electorates

Auckland Central

Uncertain

One Curia poll of 400 voters for the Taxpayers' Union, in July, had National ahead of Green on the electorate vote.

Source: Curia Market Research poll for Taxpayers' Union. Not used: unclear how undecided voters were counted.

2023 winner
Green
2023 runner-up
National
2023 margin
13.3% of the top two candidates’ votes (3,896 votes)
Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
More than 6.6% (at least 1,949 voters)
2023 boundaries
Old
Assumed for 2026
GreenAssumed: held
Assumed winner’s share of runs
98%
Roll
General

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.

Winning majority by election

3,35319965,28519995,20520023,88420051,4972008717201160020141,58120171,06820203,8962023LabourNationalGreen3.4k’965.3k’995.2k’023.9k’051.5k’08717’11600’141.6k’171.1k’203.9k’23LabourNationalGreen

Candidates

CandidateParty
Antonia ModkovaACT
Christopher ManaiaAotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
Chlöe SwarbrickMP for Auckland Central · won here 2020, 2023Green
Naisi ChenLabour
Candace KinserNational
Johan ChangOpportunity

Seat record

Won each general election since
Green, 2020
Matched the country’s top party vote
3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
Party vote vs the country
3.3 points per party on average, 2017–2023
Winning party: candidate vs party vote
Green 14.7 points higher (2023, vs National)

By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.

Seat history
YearWon byMajorityParty vote
2023Green3,896National
2020Green1,068Labour
2017National1,581National
2014National600National
2011National717National
2008National1,497National
2005Labour3,884Labour
2002Labour5,205Labour
1999Labour5,285Labour
1996Labour3,353Labour