Kapiti
Uncertain
One poll of 821 voters by Community Engagement Ltd for Clint Smith (director, Victor Consulting), in July, had Labour ahead of National.
Source: Community Engagement Ltd poll for Clint Smith (director, Victor Consulting). It moved the estimate towards Labour.
- 2023 winner (estimate)
- National
- 2023 runner-up (estimate)
- Labour
- 2023 margin (estimate)
- 14.5%
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the estimate
- More than 7.2%
- 2023 result
- Redrawn to the 2025 boundaries (estimate)
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 56%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
New seat: no earlier results
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Melody Willis | Green |
| Sophie Handford | Labour |
| Richard Goode | NAP |
| Tim CostleyMP for Ōtaki | National |
| Penny Gaylor | NZ First |
| Chee Khiang (CK) Sng | Opportunity |
| Michael Walker | Progressive Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |