Epsom
Uncertain
On 16 August National's Paul Goldsmith asked his party's voters for their electorate vote too.
Source: 1News, read 27 September 2026.
- 2023 winner
- ACT
- 2023 runner-up
- National
- 2023 margin
- 29.6% of the top two candidates’ votes (8,142 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 14.8% (at least 4,072 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- ACTAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- over 99%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| David SeymourMP for Epsom · won here 2014–2023 | ACT |
| Lawrence Xu-NanList MP | Green |
| Camilla BelichList MP · runner-up here 2020 | Labour |
| Paul GoldsmithList MP · runner-up here 2011, 2014, 2017, 2023 | National |
| Martin Gummer | NZ First |
| Paul Jackson | Opportunity |
| Sawan Jerry | Vision New Zealand |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- ACT, 2005
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 5.1 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- ACT 45.4 points higher (2023, vs National)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ACT | 8,142 | National |
| 2020 | ACT | 9,224 | National |
| 2017 | ACT | 5,519 | National |
| 2014 | ACT | 4,250 | National |
| 2011 | ACT | 2,261 | National |
| 2008 | ACT | 12,882 | National |
| 2005 | ACT | 3,102 | National |
| 2002 | National | 5,619 | National |
| 1999 | National | 1,908 | National |
| 1996 | National | 20,642 | National |