West Coast-Tasman
Uncertain
The National MP who won the seat in 2023 is retiring.
Source: Stuff, read 27 September 2026.
One Curia Market Research poll for Taxpayers' Union, 400 voters, 10–17 September 2026, moved the estimate towards National.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 4.0% of the top two candidates’ votes (1,017 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 1.9% (at least 509 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 56%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Janelle Hocking | ACT |
| Sara Dyatlova-Murphy | Alliance Party |
| Andrew Charles Beaumont | Green |
| Rory William Paterson | Labour |
| Richard Francis Osmaston | Money Free Party NZ |
| Katie Milne | National |
| Alexander Hislop | New Zealand Loyal |
| Jamie Cleine | NZ First |
| Sue Grey | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party |
| Cindie Uddstrom | Opportunity |
| Kevin Rooke | Progressive Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.8 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 6.5 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 1,017 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 6,208 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 5,593 | National |
| 2014 | Labour | 4,094 | National |
| 2011 | Labour | 2,539 | National |
| 2008 | National | 971 | National |
| 2005 | Labour | 2,154 | National |
| 2002 | Labour | 7,722 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 7,378 | National |
| 1996 | Labour | 8,491 | Labour |