Hutt South
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 3.6% of the top two candidates’ votes (1,332 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 1.8% (at least 667 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 70%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Courtney White | Green |
| Ginny AndersenList MP · won here 2020 · runner-up here 2017, 2023 | Labour |
| Chris BishopMP for Hutt South · won here 2017, 2023 · runner-up here 2014, 2020 | National |
| Alistair Boyce | NZ First |
| Ben Wylie-van Eerd | Opportunity |
| Tom Petterson | Socialist Equality Group |
| Malcolm Dick | Independent |
| David L F Smith | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.1 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 0.6 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 1,332 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 3,777 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 1,530 | National |
| 2014 | Labour | 709 | National |
| 2011 | Labour | 4,825 | National |
| 2008 | Labour | 4,086 | Labour |
| 2005 | Labour | 5,740 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 7,771 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 8,885 | Labour |
| 1996 | Labour | 2,456 | Labour |