Te Tai Tokerau
Uncertain
One poll of 500 voters by Curia Market Research for Whakaata Māori: Green 24%, Labour 18%, Te Pāti Māori 17%, Te Tai Tokerau Party 12%, other 7%, undecided 22%.
Source: Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori. Not used: it was led by someone outside the seat’s 2023 top two.
Standing again for a new party: Mariameno Kapa-Kingi (Te Tai Tokerau Party), the sitting MP
- 2023 winner
- Te Pāti Māori (Mariameno Kapa-Kingi)
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 2.5% of the top two candidates’ votes (517 votes)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: changes hands
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 56%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Maki Herbert | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party |
| Hūhana LyndonList MP | Green |
| Willow-Jean PrimeList MP | Labour |
| Aperahama Edwards | Te Pāti Māori |
| Mariameno Kapa-KingiIndependent MP for Te Tai Tokerau · won here 2023 (Te Pāti Māori) · runner-up here 2020 (Te Pāti Māori) | Te Tai Tokerau Party |
| Karl Barkley | Your PIC Party |
Seat record
- Held since
- Mariameno Kapa-Kingi (elected for Te Pāti Māori), 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 9.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Te Pāti Māori 13.5 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Te Pāti Māori | 517 | Labour |
| 2020 | Labour | 8,164 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 4,807 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 743 | Labour |
| 2011 | Mana | 1,165 | Labour |
| 2008 | Te Pāti Māori | 6,308 | Labour |
| 2005 | Te Pāti Māori | 3,613 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 5,336 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 5,692 | Labour |
| 1996 | NZ First | 8,418 | NZ First |