Whanganui
Uncertain
In our runs, ordinary polling error often hands this seat to another party.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 17.5% of the top two candidates’ votes (5,512 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 8.7% (at least 2,757 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 69%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Sandra Kyle | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand |
| Juan Charles Coffey | Balance New Zealand |
| Angela Roberts | Labour |
| Carl BatesMP for Whanganui · won here 2023 | National |
| Harete Hipango-Brownliewon here 2017 (National) · runner-up here 2020 (National) | NZ First |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.4 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 1.8 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 5,512 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 8,191 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 1,706 | National |
| 2014 | National | 4,505 | National |
| 2011 | National | 5,046 | National |
| 2008 | National | 6,333 | National |
| 2005 | National | 2,402 | National |
| 2002 | Labour | 2,070 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 3,155 | Labour |
| 1996 | Labour | 2,214 | National |