Tāmaki
Uncertain
ACT's Brooke van Velden, whose personal vote won the seat in 2023, is not standing, so her margin overstates ACT's hold; National is standing a candidate.
Source: Newsroom, read 27 September 2026.
- 2023 winner
- ACT
- 2023 runner-up
- National
- 2023 margin
- 13.2% of the top two candidates’ votes (4,158 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 6.5% (at least 2,080 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- ACTAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 97%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
If this seat changes hands
Estimated gap: 23.6 points, the 2023 margin (a share of the winner’s and runner-up’s votes) moved by the change in the polls since.
| Grouping | Now | If National wins |
|---|---|---|
| ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity | 67 | 68 |
| Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori | 62 | 62 |
| ACT + National + NZ First | 60 | 61 |
| Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori | 55 | 55 |
| Parliament | 122 | 123 |
| Majority | 62 | 62 |
Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| James Christmas | ACT |
| Donald Mackenzie Mayo | Green |
| Max Harris | Labour |
| Mahesh Muralidhar | National |
| Sacha Haskell | Opportunity |
| Ryan Earl Pausina | Independent |
| Finlay Smith | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- ACT since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 4.7 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- ACT 37.5 points higher (2023, vs National)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ACT | 4,158 | National |
| 2020 | National | 8,068 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 15,402 | National |
| 2014 | National | 20,421 | National |
| 2011 | National | 17,786 | National |
| 2008 | National | 17,020 | National |
| 2005 | National | 9,510 | National |
| 2002 | National | 1,207 | Labour |
| 1999 | National | 4,911 | National |
| 1996 | National | 8,010 | National |