East Cape

Uncertain

The National MP who won East Coast, the seat's 2023 predecessor, is standing again.

Source: Electoral Commission, read 9 October 2026.

2023 winner: National
2023 runner-up: Labour
2023 margin: 10.4% of the top two candidates’ votes (3,199 votes)
Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result: More than 5.1% (at least 1,600 voters)
2023 boundaries: Old
Assumed for 2026: LabourAssumed: changes hands
Assumed winner’s share of runs: 50%
Roll: General

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.

Winning majority by election

Estimated gap: 0.1 points, the 2023 margin (a share of the winner’s and runner-up’s votes) moved by the change in the polls since.

Grouping	Now	If National wins
ACT + National + NZ First + Opportunity	67	68
Green + Labour + Opportunity + Te Pāti Māori	62	62
ACT + National + NZ First	60	61
Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori	55	55
Parliament	122	123
Majority	62	62

Seat counts if the election were today. They say nothing about who would agree to work together.

Candidate	Party
Darrin Hawkes	ACT
Jordan Walker	Green
Jo LuxtonList MP	Labour
Dana Margot KirkpatrickMP for East Coast · won East Coast 2023	National
Cail Smith	Opportunity
Gordon John Dickson	Independent

Predecessor seat: East Coast
Held since: National since 2023
Matched the country’s top party vote: 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
Party vote vs the country: 1.2 points per party on average, 2017–2023
Winning party: candidate vs party vote: National 0.1 points lower (2023, vs Labour)

By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.

Seat history

Year	Won by	Majority	Party vote
2023	National	3,199	National
2020	Labour	6,331	Labour
2017	National	4,807	National
2014	National	7,934	National
2011	National	4,774	National
2008	National	6,413	National
2005	National	1,219	National
2002	Labour	5,343	Labour
1999	Labour	3,845	Labour