Kaipara ki Mahurangi
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 52.5% of the top two candidates’ votes (19,459 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 26.2% (at least 9,730 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- over 99%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Simon CourtList MP | ACT |
| Zephyr Brown | Green |
| Jolyon Swinburn | Labour |
| Jessica Rowe | National |
| Jenny MarcroftList MP | NZ First |
| Liz Dotcom | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party |
| Daniel Eb | Opportunity |
| Mark Dennis | Independent |
| Ivan Wagstaff | Independent |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2020
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 2 elections, 2020–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 3.8 points per party on average, 2020–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 2.5 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 19,459 | National |
| 2020 | National | 4,435 | Labour |