East Coast Bays
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 58.1% of the top two candidates’ votes (20,353 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 29.0% (at least 10,177 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- over 99%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Samuel Mills | ACT |
| Abe McKee | Green |
| Brendan McEnroe | Labour |
| Erica StanfordMP for East Coast Bays · won here 2017–2023 | National |
| Allan Lind | New Zealand Loyal |
| Vaughan Taylor | NZ First |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2002
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 5.1 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 0.7 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 20,353 | National |
| 2020 | National | 8,764 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 16,290 | National |
| 2014 | National | 15,034 | National |
| 2011 | National | 14,641 | National |
| 2008 | National | 13,974 | National |
| 2005 | National | 7,286 | National |
| 2002 | National | 1,534 | Labour |