Southland
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 58.8% of the top two candidates’ votes (17,211 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 29.4% (at least 8,606 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- over 99%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Todd StephensonList MP | ACT |
| Peter McDonald | Labour |
| Joseph MooneyMP for Southland · won here 2020, 2023 | National |
| Jason Herrick | NZ First |
| Bianca Beebe | Opportunity |
| Naomi Maclean | Vision New Zealand |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2020
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 2 elections, 2020–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 4.5 points per party on average, 2020–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 4.8 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 17,211 | National |
| 2020 | National | 5,645 | Labour |