Waiariki
One Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori, 500 voters, 21 September – 1 October 2026, moved the estimate towards Te Pāti Māori.
- 2023 winner
- Te Pāti Māori
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 58.6% of the top two candidates’ votes (15,891 votes)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- Te Pāti MāoriAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 99%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Tania Waikato | Green |
| Toni Boyntonrunner-up here 2023 | Labour |
| Pāpā Wharewera | Opportunity |
| Rawiri WaititiMP for Waiariki · won here 2020, 2023 · runner-up here 2014 (Labour) | Te Pāti Māori |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- Te Pāti Māori, 2020
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 11.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Te Pāti Māori 32.6 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Te Pāti Māori | 15,891 | Labour |
| 2020 | Te Pāti Māori | 836 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 1,719 | Labour |
| 2014 | Te Pāti Māori | 3,889 | Labour |
| 2011 | Te Pāti Māori | 1,883 | Labour |
| 2008 | Te Pāti Māori | 6,812 | Labour |
| 2005 | Te Pāti Māori | 2,871 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 6,717 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 4,369 | Labour |