Upper Harbour
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 35.2% of the top two candidates’ votes (11,192 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 17.5% (at least 5,597 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 96%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Panos Patros | ACT |
| Ryan Richards | Green |
| Hannah Pia Baral | Labour |
| Cameron BrewerMP for Upper Harbour · won here 2023 | National |
| Bernadette Soares | NZ First |
| Romeo Tevaga | Opportunity |
| Jonathon Griffiths | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.6 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 1.4 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 11,192 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 2,392 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 9,556 | National |
| 2014 | National | 9,692 | National |