Waikato
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 51.0% of the top two candidates’ votes (18,548 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 25.5% (at least 9,275 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 100%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ash Parmar | ACT |
| Jamie Tokorunner-up here 2023 | Labour |
| Tim van de MolenMP for Waikato · won here 2017–2023 | National |
| Robert John Cookson | NZ First |
| Turi Te Kamonga Robinson | Independent |
| Brendan Richard Whyte | Independent |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2008
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 4.8 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 1.4 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 18,548 | National |
| 2020 | National | 5,216 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 15,452 | National |
| 2014 | National | 16,169 | National |
| 2011 | National | 14,198 | National |
| 2008 | National | 12,850 | National |