Election Bench

New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November.

Electorates

Whangārei

2023 winner
National
2023 runner-up
Labour
2023 margin
37.8% of the top two candidates’ votes (11,424 votes)
Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
More than 18.8% (at least 5,713 voters)
2023 boundaries
Old
Assumed for 2026
NationalAssumed: held
Assumed winner’s share of runs
97%
Roll
General

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.

Winning majority by election

38319961,93419993,21420029,089200514,663200812,447201113,169201410,9672017431202011,4242023NationalLabourNational383’961.9k’993.2k’029.1k’0515k’0812k’1113k’1411k’17431’2011k’23NationalLabourNAT

Candidates

CandidateParty
Doug GrahamACT
Gary PayindaLabour
Luke BeharrellMoney Free Party NZ
Lloyd Sam BuddNational
Collin BlackmanNew Zealand Loyal
Vince CocurulloNZ First
Noah WakelamNZ Outdoors & Freedom Party
Simon DellabarcaOpportunity
Daryl Warren ClotworthyIndependent
Jon TwymanIndependent

Seat record

Held since
National since 2023
Matched the country’s top party vote
3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
Party vote vs the country
1.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
Winning party: candidate vs party vote
National 6.0 points higher (2023, vs Labour)

By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.

Seat history
YearWon byMajorityParty vote
2023National11,424National
2020Labour431Labour
2017National10,967National
2014National13,169National
2011National12,447National
2008National14,663National
2005National9,089National
2002National3,214Labour
1999National1,934Labour
1996National383National