Invercargill
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 31.1% of the top two candidates’ votes (9,874 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 15.5% (at least 4,938 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 93%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Anntwinette Grumball | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party |
| Dave Kennedy | Green |
| Janice Lee | Labour |
| Penny SimmondsMP for Invercargill · won here 2020, 2023 | National |
| Hayden John Seager | Independent |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2005
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.1 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 3.0 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 9,874 | National |
| 2020 | National | 224 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 5,579 | National |
| 2014 | National | 7,482 | National |
| 2011 | National | 6,263 | National |
| 2008 | National | 6,664 | National |
| 2005 | National | 2,052 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 2,792 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 7,990 | Labour |
| 1996 | Labour | 4,235 | National |