Waitaki
One Curia Market Research poll for Taxpayers' Union, 400 voters, 18–25 September 2026, moved the estimate towards National.
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 36.6% of the top two candidates’ votes (12,151 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 18.3% (at least 6,076 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 99%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Sean Beamish | ACT |
| Damien O'ConnorList MP | Labour |
| Miles John AndersonMP for Waitaki · won here 2023 | National |
| Michael Laws | NZ First |
| Helen Tait | Opportunity |
| Adrian Daegal Graamans | Independent |
| Bronwyn Judge | Independent |
| Daniel Shand | Independent |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2008
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.8 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 1.5 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 12,151 | National |
| 2020 | National | 3,281 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 12,816 | National |
| 2014 | National | 16,668 | National |
| 2011 | National | 14,143 | National |
| 2008 | National | 11,039 | National |