Port Waikato
- 2023 by-election winner
- National
- 2023 by-election runner-up
- NZ First
- 2023 by-election margin
- 66.6% of the top two candidates’ votes (11,432 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 by-election result
- More than 33.3% (at least 5,717 voters)
- 2023 by-election boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 100%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Sarah Lochead-Macmillan | ACT |
| Carl Morgan | Green |
| Matt Brachi | Labour |
| Matthew Paul | National |
| Casey CostelloList MP · runner-up in the 2023 by-election | NZ First |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2020
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 2 of 2 elections, 2020–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 4.6 points per party on average, 2020–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 10.6 points higher (2020, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 by-election | National | 11,432 | National |
| 2020 | National | 4,313 | Labour |