Waimakariri
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 32.0% of the top two candidates’ votes (13,010 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 16.0% (at least 6,506 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 94%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ashley Bettridge | ACT |
| Richard Wesley | Green |
| Dan RosewarneList MP · runner-up here 2017–2023 | Labour |
| Matt DooceyMP for Waimakariri · won here 2014–2023 | National |
| Jackie Farrelly | NZ First |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2011
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.1 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 2.2 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 13,010 | National |
| 2020 | National | 1,507 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 10,766 | National |
| 2014 | National | 2,506 | National |
| 2011 | National | 642 | National |
| 2008 | Labour | 390 | National |
| 2005 | Labour | 5,606 | National |
| 2002 | Labour | 10,536 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 1,141 | Labour |
| 1996 | Labour | 10,606 | National |