Northland
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 23.0% of the top two candidates’ votes (6,087 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 11.5% (at least 3,044 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 82%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Mark CameronList MP | ACT |
| Jeffrey Lye | Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party |
| Douglas Robert Lyell | Conservative Party NZ |
| Mike Finlayson | Green |
| Ashleigh Latimer | Labour |
| Grant Lewis McCallumMP for Northland · won here 2023 | National |
| Pete Verhoeven | New Zealand Loyal |
| Shane JonesList MP · runner-up here 2005, 2008 (Labour) | NZ First |
| Alistair Wait | NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party |
| Richard McIntosh | Independent |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.6 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 0.2 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 6,087 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 163 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 1,389 | National |
| 2014 | National | 9,300 | National |
| 2011 | National | 11,362 | National |
| 2008 | National | 10,054 | National |
| 2005 | National | 9,275 | National |
| 2002 | National | 7,558 | Labour |
| 1999 | National | 5,454 | Labour |
| 1996 | National | 5,916 | National |