Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
One Curia Market Research poll for Whakaata Māori, 500 voters, 28 September – 8 October 2026, moved the estimate towards Labour.
- 2023 winner
- Labour
- 2023 runner-up
- Te Pāti Māori
- 2023 margin
- 11.7% of the top two candidates’ votes (2,874 votes)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- LabourAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 98%
- Roll
- Māori
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Heather Te Au-Skipworthrunner-up here 2020 (Te Pāti Māori) | Green |
| Cushla Tangaere-ManuelMP for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti · won here 2023 | Labour |
| Haley Maxwell | Te Pāti Māori |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- Labour, 1999
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 1 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 11.7 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- Labour 12.9 points lower (2023, vs Te Pāti Māori)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Labour | 2,874 | Labour |
| 2020 | Labour | 6,045 | Labour |
| 2017 | Labour | 4,210 | Labour |
| 2014 | Labour | 4,673 | Labour |
| 2011 | Labour | 6,541 | Labour |
| 2008 | Labour | 1,645 | Labour |
| 2005 | Labour | 1,932 | Labour |
| 2002 | Labour | 10,359 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 695 | Labour |