Election Bench

New Zealand votes on Saturday 7 November.

Electorates

Hamilton West

2023 winner
National
2023 runner-up
Labour
2023 margin
22.6% of the top two candidates’ votes (6,488 votes)
Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
More than 11.3% (at least 3,245 voters)
2023 boundaries
Old
Assumed for 2026
NationalAssumed: held
Assumed winner’s share of runs
81%
Roll
General

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.

Winning majority by election

59719961,62919995,574200282520051,61820084,41820115,78420147,73120176,26720202,43320226,4882023NationalLabourNationalLabourNational since 2022597’961.6k’995.6k’02825’051.6k’084.4k’115.8k’147.7k’176.3k’202.4k’226.5k’23NATLabourNationalLABNational

Candidates

CandidateParty
Louise HuttGreen
Myra Williamsonrunner-up here 2023Labour
Tama William PotakaMP for Hamilton West · won the 2022 by-election · won here 2023National
Nathan Lee CouperNew World Order McCann Party
Kevin StoneNZ First
Donna Pokere-PhillipsNZ Outdoors & Freedom Party
Blair SmithOpportunity
Steve PhelpsIndependent
Wiremu ThomsonIndependent

Seat record

Held since
National since 2022
Matched the country’s top party vote
3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
Party vote vs the country
0.9 points per party on average, 2017–2023
Winning party: candidate vs party vote
National 0.3 points higher (2023, vs Labour)

By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.

Seat history
YearWon byMajorityParty vote
2023National6,488National
2022 by-electionNational2,433—
2020Labour6,267Labour
2017National7,731National
2014National5,784National
2011National4,418National
2008National1,618National
2005Labour825Labour
2002Labour5,574Labour
1999Labour1,629Labour
1996National597National