Northcote
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 28.7% of the top two candidates’ votes (9,270 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 14.3% (at least 4,636 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 90%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Martin Lundqvist | ACT |
| Lily Carrington | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand |
| Marie Drury | Conservative Party NZ |
| Bhen Goodsir | Green |
| Shanan HalbertList MP · won here 2020 · runner-up here 2017, 2023 | Labour |
| Dan BidoisMP for Northcote · won here 2023 · runner-up here 2020 | National |
| Barak Ford | New Zealand Loyal |
| Daryl Habraken | NZ First |
| Cody Marsh | Opportunity |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 1.5 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 1.0 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 9,270 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 2,534 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 6,210 | National |
| 2014 | National | 9,664 | National |
| 2011 | National | 9,379 | National |
| 2008 | National | 9,360 | National |
| 2005 | National | 2,383 | National |
| 2002 | Labour | 2,624 | Labour |
| 1999 | Labour | 278 | Labour |
| 1996 | National | 4,563 | National |