Ilam
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Opportunity
- 2023 margin
- 26.5% of the top two candidates’ votes (7,830 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 13.2% (at least 3,916 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 86%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Ken Harpur | ACT |
| Courtney Fraser | Alliance Party |
| Mike DavidsonList MP | Green |
| Rata Jamieson | Labour |
| Hamish CampbellMP for Ilam · won here 2023 | National |
| Nathan Walton | NZ First |
Seat record
- Held since
- National since 2023
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 2.7 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 26.4 points lower (2023, vs Opportunity)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 7,830 | National |
| 2020 | Labour | 3,463 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 8,256 | National |
| 2014 | National | 11,898 | National |
| 2011 | National | 13,312 | National |
| 2008 | National | 11,893 | National |
| 2005 | National | 7,821 | National |
| 2002 | National | 3,872 | Labour |
| 1999 | National | 6,792 | National |
| 1996 | National | 10,090 | National |