Kaikōura
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 38.0% of the top two candidates’ votes (11,412 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 18.9% (at least 5,707 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 97%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Tom Spooner | ACT |
| Matt Flightrunner-up here 2020 | Labour |
| Stuart SmithMP for Kaikōura · won here 2014–2023 | National |
| Jamie ArbuckleList MP | NZ First |
| Iain Britton | Independent |
| Oliver John Hill-Hughes | Independent |
| Ted Howard | Independent |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 1996
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 3.0 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 2.5 points higher (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 11,412 | National |
| 2020 | National | 2,295 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 10,553 | National |
| 2014 | National | 12,570 | National |
| 2011 | National | 11,445 | National |
| 2008 | National | 11,077 | National |
| 2005 | National | 4,675 | National |
| 2002 | National | 3,069 | Labour |
| 1999 | National | 1,486 | Labour |
| 1996 | National | 5,912 | National |