Tauranga
- 2023 winner
- National
- 2023 runner-up
- Labour
- 2023 margin
- 32.8% of the top two candidates’ votes (9,370 votes)
- Voters who’d need to switch to change the 2023 result
- More than 16.3% (at least 4,686 voters)
- 2023 boundaries
- Old
- Assumed for 2026
- NationalAssumed: held
- Assumed winner’s share of runs
- 95%
- Roll
- General
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Winning majority by election
Candidates
| Candidate | Party |
|---|---|
| Bryan Norton | ACT |
| Sam Connely | Animal Justice Party Aotearoa New Zealand |
| Daniël Oosthuizen | Green |
| Jan TinettiList MP · runner-up here 2017–2023 | Labour |
| Sam UffindellMP for Tauranga · won here 2023 | National |
| Michael Carter | Opportunity |
| Tim Maltby | Independent |
Seat record
- Won each general election since
- National, 2005
- Matched the country’s top party vote
- 3 of 3 elections, 2017–2023
- Party vote vs the country
- 3.5 points per party on average, 2017–2023
- Winning party: candidate vs party vote
- National 5.2 points lower (2023, vs Labour)
By-elections before December 2022 are not shown.
Seat history
| Year | Won by | Majority | Party vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | National | 9,370 | National |
| 2020 | National | 1,856 | Labour |
| 2017 | National | 11,252 | National |
| 2014 | National | 14,842 | National |
| 2011 | National | 17,264 | National |
| 2008 | National | 11,742 | National |
| 2005 | National | 730 | National |
| 2002 | NZ First | 10,362 | Labour |
| 1999 | NZ First | 63 | Labour |
| 1996 | NZ First | 8,028 | National |