Simulation
Seats across the runs
2,000 runs with poll sampling error and a typical election-day polling miss, electorate winners as on the Electorates page.
Typical size of Parliament
123 seats
Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
The average of three pollsters’ last polls on file before each election since 2017 missed a party’s result by up to 4.6 points (National, 2020); single polls missed by more.
| Party | Vote share, middle 90% of runs | Seats, typical run | Seats, middle 80% of runs | Share of runs winning seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ACT
ACT
|
9.5%
[6.9% – 13.1%]
|
12
2 electorates
|
9 – 15 | 100% |
|
GRN
Green
|
14.4%
[10.8% – 19.4%]
|
18
3 electorates
|
14 – 22 | 100% |
|
LAB
Labour
|
27.7%
[21.3% – 34.7%]
|
34
27 electorates, 4 of them Māori seats
|
28 – 41 | 100% |
|
NAT
National
|
28.4%
[21.9% – 35.8%]
|
36
36 electorates
|
36 – 42 * | 100% |
|
NZF
NZ First
|
9.9%
[7.2% – 13.7%]
|
12 | 9 – 16 | 100% |
|
TOP
Opportunity
|
6.2%
[4.3% – 8.8%]
|
8 | 0 – 10 | 83% |
|
TPM
Te Pāti Māori
|
1.4%
[0.8% – 2.1%]
|
3
3 Māori seats
|
3 (assumed) | assumed |
Shares and seats, the runs’ middles, can differ slightly from the poll average and Parliament page.
* Assumed to win more electorates than its vote share earns (see the Parliament page); every run keeps them.