Poll average 10.1% 6.8%–13.1% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January +2.8 points
Seats if the election were today 12 9–16 in the middle 80% of runs
Electorate and list seats 2 electorate · 10 list
5% threshold 5.1 points above
Grouping ACT + National + NZ First: 61 seats, a majority in 51% of runs Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Poll average since 27 January ACT's poll average ACT's poll average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% ACT ACT's poll average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% ACT ACT's poll average 0% 10% 15% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% ACT ACT's poll average 0% 10% 15% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% ACT Where ACT's party vote is strongest Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: ACT across the country in 2023.
Kaikōura Kaikōura, 2017: 0.4% (country 0.5%) Kaikōura, 2020: 11.4% (country 7.6%) Kaikōura, 2023: 14.1% (country 8.6%) 1.6× Rangitīkei Rangitīkei, 2017: 0.5% (country 0.5%) Rangitīkei, 2020: 11.4% (country 7.6%) Rangitīkei, 2023: 13.7% (country 8.6%) 1.6× Southland Southland, 2020: 12.7% (country 7.6%) Southland, 2023: 13.6% (country 8.6%) 1.6× Taranaki-King Country Taranaki-King Country, 2017: 0.6% (country 0.5%) Taranaki-King Country, 2020: 11.4% (country 7.6%) Taranaki-King Country, 2023: 13.4% (country 8.6%) 1.6× West Coast-Tasman West Coast-Tasman, 2017: 0.4% (country 0.5%) West Coast-Tasman, 2020: 9.8% (country 7.6%) West Coast-Tasman, 2023: 13.1% (country 8.6%) 1.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 1.8% (country 0.5%) Epsom, 2020: 10.4% (country 7.6%) Epsom, 2023: 12.4% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Tāmaki Tāmaki, 2017: 1.4% (country 0.5%) Tāmaki, 2020: 11.7% (country 7.6%) Tāmaki, 2023: 12.4% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Tukituki Tukituki, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Tukituki, 2020: 8.9% (country 7.6%) Tukituki, 2023: 12.4% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Waitaki Waitaki, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Waitaki, 2020: 11.7% (country 7.6%) Waitaki, 2023: 12.3% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Waikato Waikato, 2017: 0.6% (country 0.5%) Waikato, 2020: 10.5% (country 7.6%) Waikato, 2023: 12.3% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Selwyn Selwyn, 2017: 0.5% (country 0.5%) Selwyn, 2020: 12.6% (country 7.6%) Selwyn, 2023: 12.2% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Kaipara ki Mahurangi Kaipara ki Mahurangi, 2020: 11.3% (country 7.6%) Kaipara ki Mahurangi, 2023: 12.1% (country 8.6%) 1.4× 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Kaikōura Kaikōura, 2017: 0.4% (country 0.5%) Kaikōura, 2020: 11.4% (country 7.6%) Kaikōura, 2023: 14.1% (country 8.6%) 1.6× Rangitīkei Rangitīkei, 2017: 0.5% (country 0.5%) Rangitīkei, 2020: 11.4% (country 7.6%) Rangitīkei, 2023: 13.7% (country 8.6%) 1.6× Southland Southland, 2020: 12.7% (country 7.6%) Southland, 2023: 13.6% (country 8.6%) 1.6× Taranaki-King Country Taranaki-King Country, 2017: 0.6% (country 0.5%) Taranaki-King Country, 2020: 11.4% (country 7.6%) Taranaki-King Country, 2023: 13.4% (country 8.6%) 1.6× West Coast-Tasman West Coast-Tasman, 2017: 0.4% (country 0.5%) West Coast-Tasman, 2020: 9.8% (country 7.6%) West Coast-Tasman, 2023: 13.1% (country 8.6%) 1.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 1.8% (country 0.5%) Epsom, 2020: 10.4% (country 7.6%) Epsom, 2023: 12.4% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Tāmaki Tāmaki, 2017: 1.4% (country 0.5%) Tāmaki, 2020: 11.7% (country 7.6%) Tāmaki, 2023: 12.4% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Tukituki Tukituki, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Tukituki, 2020: 8.9% (country 7.6%) Tukituki, 2023: 12.4% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Waitaki Waitaki, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Waitaki, 2020: 11.7% (country 7.6%) Waitaki, 2023: 12.3% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Waikato Waikato, 2017: 0.6% (country 0.5%) Waikato, 2020: 10.5% (country 7.6%) Waikato, 2023: 12.3% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Selwyn Selwyn, 2017: 0.5% (country 0.5%) Selwyn, 2020: 12.6% (country 7.6%) Selwyn, 2023: 12.2% (country 8.6%) 1.4× Kaipara ki Mahurangi Kaipara ki Mahurangi, 2020: 11.3% (country 7.6%) Kaipara ki Mahurangi, 2023: 12.1% (country 8.6%) 1.4× 0% 5% 10% 15% Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 0.8% (country 0.5%) Wellington North, 2020: 4.9% (country 7.6%) Wellington North, 2023: 4.5% (country 8.6%) 0.5× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 3.9% (country 7.6%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 3.9% (country 8.6%) 0.5× Ōtāhuhu Ōtāhuhu, 2020: 2.4% (country 7.6%) Ōtāhuhu, 2023: 3.6% (country 8.6%) 0.4× Manurewa Manurewa, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Manurewa, 2020: 1.7% (country 7.6%) Manurewa, 2023: 2.7% (country 8.6%) 0.3× Māngere Māngere, 2017: 0.1% (country 0.5%) Māngere, 2020: 1.6% (country 7.6%) Māngere, 2023: 2.1% (country 8.6%) 0.2× 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 0.8% (country 0.5%) Wellington North, 2020: 4.9% (country 7.6%) Wellington North, 2023: 4.5% (country 8.6%) 0.5× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 3.9% (country 7.6%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 3.9% (country 8.6%) 0.5× Ōtāhuhu Ōtāhuhu, 2020: 2.4% (country 7.6%) Ōtāhuhu, 2023: 3.6% (country 8.6%) 0.4× Manurewa Manurewa, 2017: 0.3% (country 0.5%) Manurewa, 2020: 1.7% (country 7.6%) Manurewa, 2023: 2.7% (country 8.6%) 0.3× Māngere Māngere, 2017: 0.1% (country 0.5%) Māngere, 2020: 1.6% (country 7.6%) Māngere, 2023: 2.1% (country 8.6%) 0.2× 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% General electorates. In the Māori electorates ACT took at most 2.3% in 2023.
Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.
Show the other 51 electorates ACT's 2023 party vote by electorate Chatham Islands Auckland Central: 9.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula: 7.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 7.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 11.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Dunedin: 5.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Cape: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 9.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Hamilton East: 8.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 8.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Henderson: No 2023 figure Hutt South: 5.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 8.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Invercargill: 10.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 14.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Māngere: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Maunganui: 11.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 6.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Napier: 11.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Nelson: 10.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from New Plymouth: 10.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 11.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 8.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northland: 10.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 3.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 9.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Palmerston North: 8.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 10.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitata: 10.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitīkei: 13.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Remutaka: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rotorua: 9.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 12.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Southland: 13.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taieri: 7.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 13.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 11.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tauranga: 10.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tukituki: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 8.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 12.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 10.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 10.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Waitaki: 12.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 4.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 13.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whanganui: 9.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangaparāoa: 11.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangārei: 9.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 6.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hauraki-Waikato: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 2.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel East Cape Invercargill Kaikōura Napier Northland Rangitata Rangitīkei Selwyn Southland Taieri Taupō Waikato Wairarapa Waitaki West Coast-Tasman Whanganui Hauraki-Waikato Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Auckland Central: 9.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 11.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 9.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 6.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 11.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 8.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 3.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 9.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 10.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 8.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Whangaparāoa: 11.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany Papakura Waitākere Whangaparāoa Auckland Auckland Central: 9.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 9.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 6.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 11.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 8.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 3.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 9.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 10.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 8.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom Glendene Henderson Māngere Maungakiekie Northcote Ōtāhuhu Tāmaki Upper Harbour Auckland CBD Coromandel: 11.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton East: 8.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 8.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 13.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 11.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 12.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton Hutt South: 5.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 14.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Remutaka: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 10.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 4.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hutt South Kenepuru Remutaka Wellington Banks Peninsula: 7.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 7.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 8.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 12.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 10.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 13.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 6.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula Ilam Wigram Christchurch Hauraki-Waikato: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 2.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Māori electorates Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.