Poll average 14.8% 10.7%–19.5% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January +6.1 points
Seats if the election were today 18 14–23 in the middle 80% of runs
Electorate and list seats 3 electorate · 15 list
5% threshold 9.8 points above
Grouping Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori: 55 seats, a majority in 5% of runs Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Poll average since 27 January Green's poll average Green's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% Green Green's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% Green Green's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% Green Green's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% Green Where Green's party vote is strongest Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: Green across the country in 2023.
Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 21.3% (country 6.3%) Wellington North, 2020: 30.4% (country 7.9%) Wellington North, 2023: 37.8% (country 11.6%) 3.3× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 17.8% (country 6.3%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 23.7% (country 7.9%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 32.1% (country 11.6%) 2.8× Dunedin Dunedin, 2020: 17.8% (country 7.9%) Dunedin, 2023: 26.9% (country 11.6%) 2.3× Mt Albert Mt Albert, 2017: 14.7% (country 6.3%) Mt Albert, 2020: 20.1% (country 7.9%) Mt Albert, 2023: 25.3% (country 11.6%) 2.2× Auckland Central Auckland Central, 2017: 13.9% (country 6.3%) Auckland Central, 2020: 19.1% (country 7.9%) Auckland Central, 2023: 24.0% (country 11.6%) 2.1× Banks Peninsula Banks Peninsula, 2020: 14.3% (country 7.9%) Banks Peninsula, 2023: 19.7% (country 11.6%) 1.7× Christchurch Central Christchurch Central, 2017: 9.8% (country 6.3%) Christchurch Central, 2020: 12.8% (country 7.9%) Christchurch Central, 2023: 19.5% (country 11.6%) 1.7× Te Tai Tonga Te Tai Tonga, 2017: 8.2% (country 6.3%) Te Tai Tonga, 2020: 11.7% (country 7.9%) Te Tai Tonga, 2023: 16.4% (country 11.6%) 1.4× Hutt South Hutt South, 2017: 7.3% (country 6.3%) Hutt South, 2020: 9.4% (country 7.9%) Hutt South, 2023: 15.5% (country 11.6%) 1.3× Ilam Ilam, 2017: 7.2% (country 6.3%) Ilam, 2020: 10.3% (country 7.9%) Ilam, 2023: 15.0% (country 11.6%) 1.3× Wigram Wigram, 2017: 6.7% (country 6.3%) Wigram, 2020: 9.1% (country 7.9%) Wigram, 2023: 14.9% (country 11.6%) 1.3× Christchurch East Christchurch East, 2017: 6.8% (country 6.3%) Christchurch East, 2020: 8.5% (country 7.9%) Christchurch East, 2023: 14.5% (country 11.6%) 1.3× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 21.3% (country 6.3%) Wellington North, 2020: 30.4% (country 7.9%) Wellington North, 2023: 37.8% (country 11.6%) 3.3× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 17.8% (country 6.3%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 23.7% (country 7.9%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 32.1% (country 11.6%) 2.8× Dunedin Dunedin, 2020: 17.8% (country 7.9%) Dunedin, 2023: 26.9% (country 11.6%) 2.3× Mt Albert Mt Albert, 2017: 14.7% (country 6.3%) Mt Albert, 2020: 20.1% (country 7.9%) Mt Albert, 2023: 25.3% (country 11.6%) 2.2× Auckland Central Auckland Central, 2017: 13.9% (country 6.3%) Auckland Central, 2020: 19.1% (country 7.9%) Auckland Central, 2023: 24.0% (country 11.6%) 2.1× Banks Peninsula Banks Peninsula, 2020: 14.3% (country 7.9%) Banks Peninsula, 2023: 19.7% (country 11.6%) 1.7× Christchurch Central Christchurch Central, 2017: 9.8% (country 6.3%) Christchurch Central, 2020: 12.8% (country 7.9%) Christchurch Central, 2023: 19.5% (country 11.6%) 1.7× Te Tai Tonga Te Tai Tonga, 2017: 8.2% (country 6.3%) Te Tai Tonga, 2020: 11.7% (country 7.9%) Te Tai Tonga, 2023: 16.4% (country 11.6%) 1.4× Hutt South Hutt South, 2017: 7.3% (country 6.3%) Hutt South, 2020: 9.4% (country 7.9%) Hutt South, 2023: 15.5% (country 11.6%) 1.3× Ilam Ilam, 2017: 7.2% (country 6.3%) Ilam, 2020: 10.3% (country 7.9%) Ilam, 2023: 15.0% (country 11.6%) 1.3× Wigram Wigram, 2017: 6.7% (country 6.3%) Wigram, 2020: 9.1% (country 7.9%) Wigram, 2023: 14.9% (country 11.6%) 1.3× Christchurch East Christchurch East, 2017: 6.8% (country 6.3%) Christchurch East, 2020: 8.5% (country 7.9%) Christchurch East, 2023: 14.5% (country 11.6%) 1.3× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Botany Botany, 2017: 2.4% (country 6.3%) Botany, 2020: 3.3% (country 7.9%) Botany, 2023: 5.9% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Port Waikato Port Waikato, 2020: 3.4% (country 7.9%) Port Waikato, 2023: 5.9% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Rangitata Rangitata, 2017: 3.5% (country 6.3%) Rangitata, 2020: 3.1% (country 7.9%) Rangitata, 2023: 5.8% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Takanini Takanini, 2020: 3.3% (country 7.9%) Takanini, 2023: 5.7% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Waikato Waikato, 2017: 3.0% (country 6.3%) Waikato, 2020: 3.5% (country 7.9%) Waikato, 2023: 5.5% (country 11.6%) 0.5× 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Botany Botany, 2017: 2.4% (country 6.3%) Botany, 2020: 3.3% (country 7.9%) Botany, 2023: 5.9% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Port Waikato Port Waikato, 2020: 3.4% (country 7.9%) Port Waikato, 2023: 5.9% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Rangitata Rangitata, 2017: 3.5% (country 6.3%) Rangitata, 2020: 3.1% (country 7.9%) Rangitata, 2023: 5.8% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Takanini Takanini, 2020: 3.3% (country 7.9%) Takanini, 2023: 5.7% (country 11.6%) 0.5× Waikato Waikato, 2017: 3.0% (country 6.3%) Waikato, 2020: 3.5% (country 7.9%) Waikato, 2023: 5.5% (country 11.6%) 0.5× 0% 5% 10% 15% General electorates.
Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.
Show the other 51 electorates Green's 2023 party vote by electorate Chatham Islands Auckland Central: 24.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula: 19.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 19.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 14.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Dunedin: 26.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Cape: 7.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 13.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Hamilton East: 12.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 10.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Henderson: No 2023 figure Hutt South: 15.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 15.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Invercargill: 6.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 9.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Māngere: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 13.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 25.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Maunganui: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Napier: 8.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Nelson: 14.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from New Plymouth: 8.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 11.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 14.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northland: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 8.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 7.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Palmerston North: 12.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 6.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitata: 5.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitīkei: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Remutaka: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rotorua: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Southland: 8.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taieri: 10.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 5.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 11.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 6.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 6.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tauranga: 9.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tukituki: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 9.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 8.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 8.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Waitaki: 9.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 32.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 37.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 10.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whanganui: 7.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangaparāoa: 7.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangārei: 9.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 14.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hauraki-Waikato: 7.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 9.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 16.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel East Cape Invercargill Kaikōura Napier Northland Rangitata Rangitīkei Selwyn Southland Taieri Taupō Waikato Wairarapa Waitaki West Coast-Tasman Whanganui Hauraki-Waikato Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Auckland Central: 24.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 13.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 9.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 13.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 25.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 11.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 14.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 8.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 7.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 6.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 5.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 11.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 9.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Whangaparāoa: 7.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany Papakura Waitākere Whangaparāoa Auckland Auckland Central: 24.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 13.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 9.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 5.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 13.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 25.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 11.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 14.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 8.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 7.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 6.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 5.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 11.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 9.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Tāmaki Makaurau: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom Glendene Henderson Māngere Maungakiekie Northcote Ōtāhuhu Tāmaki Upper Harbour Auckland CBD Coromandel: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton East: 12.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 10.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 6.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 6.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton Hutt South: 15.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Remutaka: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 8.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 32.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 37.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hutt South Kenepuru Remutaka Wellington Banks Peninsula: 19.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 19.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 14.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 15.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 8.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 10.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 14.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula Ilam Wigram Christchurch Hauraki-Waikato: 7.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 12.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 7.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 9.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 16.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Māori electorates Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.