Poll average 27.9% 21.3%–34.9% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January −6.8 points
Seats if the election were today 34 28–41 in the middle 80% of runs
Electorate and list seats 26 electorate · 8 list
5% threshold 22.9 points above
Grouping Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori: 55 seats, a majority in 5% of runs Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Poll average since 27 January Labour's poll average Labour's poll average 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% Labour Labour's poll average 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% Labour Labour's poll average 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% Labour Labour's poll average 0% 20% 40% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% Labour Where Labour's party vote is strongest Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: Labour across the country in 2023.
Māngere Māngere, 2017: 71.0% (country 36.9%) Māngere, 2020: 77.4% (country 50.0%) Māngere, 2023: 61.4% (country 26.9%) 2.3× Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, 2017: 65.5% (country 36.9%) Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, 2020: 67.3% (country 50.0%) Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, 2023: 55.7% (country 26.9%) 2.1× Ōtāhuhu Ōtāhuhu, 2020: 73.7% (country 50.0%) Ōtāhuhu, 2023: 52.7% (country 26.9%) 2.0× Manurewa Manurewa, 2017: 58.9% (country 36.9%) Manurewa, 2020: 73.9% (country 50.0%) Manurewa, 2023: 52.2% (country 26.9%) 1.9× Hauraki-Waikato Hauraki-Waikato, 2017: 62.6% (country 36.9%) Hauraki-Waikato, 2020: 64.7% (country 50.0%) Hauraki-Waikato, 2023: 44.7% (country 26.9%) 1.7× Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tokerau, 2017: 58.5% (country 36.9%) Te Tai Tokerau, 2020: 61.1% (country 50.0%) Te Tai Tokerau, 2023: 44.4% (country 26.9%) 1.7× Waiariki Waiariki, 2017: 59.0% (country 36.9%) Waiariki, 2020: 60.7% (country 50.0%) Waiariki, 2023: 43.7% (country 26.9%) 1.6× Tāmaki Makaurau Tāmaki Makaurau, 2017: 60.0% (country 36.9%) Tāmaki Makaurau, 2020: 61.1% (country 50.0%) Tāmaki Makaurau, 2023: 43.4% (country 26.9%) 1.6× Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Hauāuru, 2017: 59.1% (country 36.9%) Te Tai Hauāuru, 2020: 62.0% (country 50.0%) Te Tai Hauāuru, 2023: 41.6% (country 26.9%) 1.5× Remutaka Remutaka, 2017: 43.5% (country 36.9%) Remutaka, 2020: 58.5% (country 50.0%) Remutaka, 2023: 38.3% (country 26.9%) 1.4× Te Tai Tonga Te Tai Tonga, 2017: 56.3% (country 36.9%) Te Tai Tonga, 2020: 59.5% (country 50.0%) Te Tai Tonga, 2023: 37.0% (country 26.9%) 1.4× Christchurch East Christchurch East, 2017: 47.3% (country 36.9%) Christchurch East, 2020: 60.3% (country 50.0%) Christchurch East, 2023: 34.4% (country 26.9%) 1.3× 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Māngere Māngere, 2017: 71.0% (country 36.9%) Māngere, 2020: 77.4% (country 50.0%) Māngere, 2023: 61.4% (country 26.9%) 2.3× Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, 2017: 65.5% (country 36.9%) Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, 2020: 67.3% (country 50.0%) Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, 2023: 55.7% (country 26.9%) 2.1× Ōtāhuhu Ōtāhuhu, 2020: 73.7% (country 50.0%) Ōtāhuhu, 2023: 52.7% (country 26.9%) 2.0× Manurewa Manurewa, 2017: 58.9% (country 36.9%) Manurewa, 2020: 73.9% (country 50.0%) Manurewa, 2023: 52.2% (country 26.9%) 1.9× Hauraki-Waikato Hauraki-Waikato, 2017: 62.6% (country 36.9%) Hauraki-Waikato, 2020: 64.7% (country 50.0%) Hauraki-Waikato, 2023: 44.7% (country 26.9%) 1.7× Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tokerau, 2017: 58.5% (country 36.9%) Te Tai Tokerau, 2020: 61.1% (country 50.0%) Te Tai Tokerau, 2023: 44.4% (country 26.9%) 1.7× Waiariki Waiariki, 2017: 59.0% (country 36.9%) Waiariki, 2020: 60.7% (country 50.0%) Waiariki, 2023: 43.7% (country 26.9%) 1.6× Tāmaki Makaurau Tāmaki Makaurau, 2017: 60.0% (country 36.9%) Tāmaki Makaurau, 2020: 61.1% (country 50.0%) Tāmaki Makaurau, 2023: 43.4% (country 26.9%) 1.6× Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Hauāuru, 2017: 59.1% (country 36.9%) Te Tai Hauāuru, 2020: 62.0% (country 50.0%) Te Tai Hauāuru, 2023: 41.6% (country 26.9%) 1.5× Remutaka Remutaka, 2017: 43.5% (country 36.9%) Remutaka, 2020: 58.5% (country 50.0%) Remutaka, 2023: 38.3% (country 26.9%) 1.4× Te Tai Tonga Te Tai Tonga, 2017: 56.3% (country 36.9%) Te Tai Tonga, 2020: 59.5% (country 50.0%) Te Tai Tonga, 2023: 37.0% (country 26.9%) 1.4× Christchurch East Christchurch East, 2017: 47.3% (country 36.9%) Christchurch East, 2020: 60.3% (country 50.0%) Christchurch East, 2023: 34.4% (country 26.9%) 1.3× 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Pakuranga Pakuranga, 2017: 24.8% (country 36.9%) Pakuranga, 2020: 42.0% (country 50.0%) Pakuranga, 2023: 16.6% (country 26.9%) 0.6× Southland Southland, 2020: 38.9% (country 50.0%) Southland, 2023: 16.5% (country 26.9%) 0.6× Whangaparāoa Whangaparāoa, 2020: 40.0% (country 50.0%) Whangaparāoa, 2023: 15.3% (country 26.9%) 0.6× East Coast Bays East Coast Bays, 2017: 23.2% (country 36.9%) East Coast Bays, 2020: 40.3% (country 50.0%) East Coast Bays, 2023: 14.7% (country 26.9%) 0.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 24.5% (country 36.9%) Epsom, 2020: 36.0% (country 50.0%) Epsom, 2023: 14.7% (country 26.9%) 0.5× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Pakuranga Pakuranga, 2017: 24.8% (country 36.9%) Pakuranga, 2020: 42.0% (country 50.0%) Pakuranga, 2023: 16.6% (country 26.9%) 0.6× Southland Southland, 2020: 38.9% (country 50.0%) Southland, 2023: 16.5% (country 26.9%) 0.6× Whangaparāoa Whangaparāoa, 2020: 40.0% (country 50.0%) Whangaparāoa, 2023: 15.3% (country 26.9%) 0.6× East Coast Bays East Coast Bays, 2017: 23.2% (country 36.9%) East Coast Bays, 2020: 40.3% (country 50.0%) East Coast Bays, 2023: 14.7% (country 26.9%) 0.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 24.5% (country 36.9%) Epsom, 2020: 36.0% (country 50.0%) Epsom, 2023: 14.7% (country 26.9%) 0.5× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% General electorates.
Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.
Show the other 51 electorates Labour's 2023 party vote by electorate Chatham Islands Auckland Central: 22.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula: 26.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 20.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 28.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 34.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 19.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Dunedin: 31.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Cape: 29.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 14.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 14.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Hamilton East: 24.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 26.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Henderson: No 2023 figure Hutt South: 32.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 22.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Invercargill: 25.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 20.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 17.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Māngere: 61.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 52.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 27.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 26.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Maunganui: 17.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 30.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Napier: 26.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Nelson: 29.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from New Plymouth: 24.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 17.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 23.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northland: 22.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 52.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 16.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Palmerston North: 31.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 21.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 18.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitata: 26.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitīkei: 21.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Remutaka: 38.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rotorua: 24.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 18.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Southland: 16.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taieri: 34.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 28.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 16.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 17.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 22.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tauranga: 18.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tukituki: 25.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 22.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 17.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 24.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 27.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Waitaki: 21.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 31.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 24.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 23.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whanganui: 27.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangaparāoa: 15.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangārei: 22.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 29.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hauraki-Waikato: 44.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 55.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 41.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 44.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 37.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 43.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel East Cape Invercargill Kaikōura Napier Northland Rangitata Rangitīkei Selwyn Southland Taieri Taupō Waikato Wairarapa Waitaki West Coast-Tasman Whanganui Hauraki-Waikato Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Auckland Central: 22.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 20.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 19.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 14.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 14.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 17.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 61.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 52.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 27.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 26.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 30.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 17.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 23.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 52.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 16.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 21.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 18.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 28.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 16.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 22.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Whangaparāoa: 15.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany Papakura Waitākere Whangaparāoa Auckland Auckland Central: 22.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 20.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 14.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 14.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 17.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 61.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 52.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 27.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 26.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 30.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 17.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 23.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 52.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 16.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 21.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 28.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 16.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 22.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Tāmaki Makaurau: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom Glendene Henderson Māngere Maungakiekie Northcote Ōtāhuhu Tāmaki Upper Harbour Auckland CBD Coromandel: 19.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton East: 24.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 26.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 17.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 22.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 17.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton Hutt South: 32.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 20.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Remutaka: 38.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 27.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 31.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 24.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hutt South Kenepuru Remutaka Wellington Banks Peninsula: 26.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 28.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 34.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 22.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 18.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 24.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 23.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 29.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula Ilam Wigram Christchurch Hauraki-Waikato: 44.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 55.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 41.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 44.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 37.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 43.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Māori electorates Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.