Poll average 28.8% 21.9%–35.7% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January −2.9 points
Seats if the election were today 37 37–42 in the middle 80% of runs
Electorate and list seats 37 electorate · 0 list
5% threshold 23.8 points above
Grouping ACT + National + NZ First: 61 seats, a majority in 51% of runs Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Poll average since 27 January National's poll average National's poll average 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% National National's poll average 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% National National's poll average 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% National National's poll average 0% 20% 40% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% National Where National's party vote is strongest Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: National across the country in 2023.
Botany Botany, 2017: 61.0% (country 44.5%) Botany, 2020: 37.1% (country 25.6%) Botany, 2023: 59.0% (country 38.1%) 1.6× Pakuranga Pakuranga, 2017: 61.9% (country 44.5%) Pakuranga, 2020: 38.5% (country 25.6%) Pakuranga, 2023: 58.3% (country 38.1%) 1.5× East Coast Bays East Coast Bays, 2017: 62.9% (country 44.5%) East Coast Bays, 2020: 38.4% (country 25.6%) East Coast Bays, 2023: 57.8% (country 38.1%) 1.5× Whangaparāoa Whangaparāoa, 2020: 36.7% (country 25.6%) Whangaparāoa, 2023: 53.2% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Takanini Takanini, 2020: 30.1% (country 25.6%) Takanini, 2023: 53.0% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Tāmaki Tāmaki, 2017: 61.7% (country 44.5%) Tāmaki, 2020: 37.1% (country 25.6%) Tāmaki, 2023: 52.6% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Papakura Papakura, 2017: 51.3% (country 44.5%) Papakura, 2020: 37.1% (country 25.6%) Papakura, 2023: 52.0% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 58.6% (country 44.5%) Epsom, 2020: 37.5% (country 25.6%) Epsom, 2023: 51.7% (country 38.1%) 1.4× North Shore North Shore, 2017: 57.8% (country 44.5%) North Shore, 2020: 34.0% (country 25.6%) North Shore, 2023: 50.9% (country 38.1%) 1.3× Waikato Waikato, 2017: 58.7% (country 44.5%) Waikato, 2020: 37.7% (country 25.6%) Waikato, 2023: 50.4% (country 38.1%) 1.3× Upper Harbour Upper Harbour, 2017: 54.2% (country 44.5%) Upper Harbour, 2020: 31.4% (country 25.6%) Upper Harbour, 2023: 50.2% (country 38.1%) 1.3× Port Waikato Port Waikato, 2020: 36.4% (country 25.6%) Port Waikato, 2023: 50.2% (country 38.1%) 1.3× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Botany Botany, 2017: 61.0% (country 44.5%) Botany, 2020: 37.1% (country 25.6%) Botany, 2023: 59.0% (country 38.1%) 1.6× Pakuranga Pakuranga, 2017: 61.9% (country 44.5%) Pakuranga, 2020: 38.5% (country 25.6%) Pakuranga, 2023: 58.3% (country 38.1%) 1.5× East Coast Bays East Coast Bays, 2017: 62.9% (country 44.5%) East Coast Bays, 2020: 38.4% (country 25.6%) East Coast Bays, 2023: 57.8% (country 38.1%) 1.5× Whangaparāoa Whangaparāoa, 2020: 36.7% (country 25.6%) Whangaparāoa, 2023: 53.2% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Takanini Takanini, 2020: 30.1% (country 25.6%) Takanini, 2023: 53.0% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Tāmaki Tāmaki, 2017: 61.7% (country 44.5%) Tāmaki, 2020: 37.1% (country 25.6%) Tāmaki, 2023: 52.6% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Papakura Papakura, 2017: 51.3% (country 44.5%) Papakura, 2020: 37.1% (country 25.6%) Papakura, 2023: 52.0% (country 38.1%) 1.4× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 58.6% (country 44.5%) Epsom, 2020: 37.5% (country 25.6%) Epsom, 2023: 51.7% (country 38.1%) 1.4× North Shore North Shore, 2017: 57.8% (country 44.5%) North Shore, 2020: 34.0% (country 25.6%) North Shore, 2023: 50.9% (country 38.1%) 1.3× Waikato Waikato, 2017: 58.7% (country 44.5%) Waikato, 2020: 37.7% (country 25.6%) Waikato, 2023: 50.4% (country 38.1%) 1.3× Upper Harbour Upper Harbour, 2017: 54.2% (country 44.5%) Upper Harbour, 2020: 31.4% (country 25.6%) Upper Harbour, 2023: 50.2% (country 38.1%) 1.3× Port Waikato Port Waikato, 2020: 36.4% (country 25.6%) Port Waikato, 2023: 50.2% (country 38.1%) 1.3× 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Ōtāhuhu Ōtāhuhu, 2020: 12.8% (country 25.6%) Ōtāhuhu, 2023: 26.6% (country 38.1%) 0.7× Dunedin Dunedin, 2020: 14.1% (country 25.6%) Dunedin, 2023: 22.7% (country 38.1%) 0.6× Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 30.5% (country 44.5%) Wellington North, 2020: 14.5% (country 25.6%) Wellington North, 2023: 21.5% (country 38.1%) 0.6× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 28.1% (country 44.5%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 13.3% (country 25.6%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 21.3% (country 38.1%) 0.6× Māngere Māngere, 2017: 17.3% (country 44.5%) Māngere, 2020: 9.1% (country 25.6%) Māngere, 2023: 19.3% (country 38.1%) 0.5× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Ōtāhuhu Ōtāhuhu, 2020: 12.8% (country 25.6%) Ōtāhuhu, 2023: 26.6% (country 38.1%) 0.7× Dunedin Dunedin, 2020: 14.1% (country 25.6%) Dunedin, 2023: 22.7% (country 38.1%) 0.6× Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 30.5% (country 44.5%) Wellington North, 2020: 14.5% (country 25.6%) Wellington North, 2023: 21.5% (country 38.1%) 0.6× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 28.1% (country 44.5%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 13.3% (country 25.6%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 21.3% (country 38.1%) 0.6× Māngere Māngere, 2017: 17.3% (country 44.5%) Māngere, 2020: 9.1% (country 25.6%) Māngere, 2023: 19.3% (country 38.1%) 0.5× 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% General electorates. In the Māori electorates National took at most 8.7% in 2023.
Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.
Show the other 51 electorates National's 2023 party vote by electorate Chatham Islands Auckland Central: 33.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula: 32.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 59.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 31.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 28.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 43.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Dunedin: 22.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Cape: 36.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 57.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 51.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Hamilton East: 42.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 41.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Henderson: No 2023 figure Hutt South: 34.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 43.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Invercargill: 42.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 41.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 47.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Māngere: 19.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 29.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 41.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 32.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Maunganui: 47.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Napier: 41.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Nelson: 32.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from New Plymouth: 42.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 50.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 43.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northland: 35.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 26.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 58.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Palmerston North: 34.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 52.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 50.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitata: 44.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitīkei: 41.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Remutaka: 30.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rotorua: 41.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 49.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Southland: 48.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taieri: 33.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 53.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 52.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 47.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 45.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tauranga: 46.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tukituki: 41.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 50.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 50.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 42.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 38.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Waitaki: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 21.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 21.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 33.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whanganui: 37.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangaparāoa: 53.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangārei: 37.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 35.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hauraki-Waikato: 5.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 3.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 4.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 4.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 5.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 8.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 3.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel East Cape Invercargill Kaikōura Napier Northland Rangitata Rangitīkei Selwyn Southland Taieri Taupō Waikato Wairarapa Waitaki West Coast-Tasman Whanganui Hauraki-Waikato Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Auckland Central: 33.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 59.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 43.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 57.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 51.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 47.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 19.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 29.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 41.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 32.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 50.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 43.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 26.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 58.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 52.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 50.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 53.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 52.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 50.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Whangaparāoa: 53.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 4.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany Papakura Waitākere Whangaparāoa Auckland Auckland Central: 33.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 59.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 57.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 51.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 47.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 19.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 29.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 41.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 32.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 43.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 50.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 43.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 26.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 58.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 52.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 53.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 52.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 50.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Tāmaki Makaurau: 4.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom Glendene Henderson Māngere Maungakiekie Northcote Ōtāhuhu Tāmaki Upper Harbour Auckland CBD Coromandel: 43.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton East: 42.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 41.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 47.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 45.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 50.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton Hutt South: 34.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 41.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Remutaka: 30.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 38.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 21.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 21.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hutt South Kenepuru Remutaka Wellington Banks Peninsula: 32.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 31.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 28.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 43.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 49.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 42.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 33.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 35.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula Ilam Wigram Christchurch Hauraki-Waikato: 5.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 3.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 4.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 4.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 5.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 8.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 3.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Māori electorates Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.