Poll average 10.1% 7.1%–13.7% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January −0.7 points
Seats if the election were today 12 9–16 in the middle 80% of runs
Electorate and list seats 0 electorate · 12 list
5% threshold 5.1 points above
Grouping ACT + National + NZ First: 61 seats, a majority in 51% of runs Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Poll average since 27 January NZ First's poll average NZ First's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% NZ First NZ First's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% NZ First NZ First's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% NZ First NZ First's poll average 0% 10% 15% 20% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% NZ First Where NZ First's party vote is strongest Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: NZ First across the country in 2023.
Northland Northland, 2017: 13.2% (country 7.2%) Northland, 2020: 5.8% (country 2.6%) Northland, 2023: 14.1% (country 6.1%) 2.3× Whangārei Whangārei, 2017: 14.1% (country 7.2%) Whangārei, 2020: 5.1% (country 2.6%) Whangārei, 2023: 13.1% (country 6.1%) 2.1× Whanganui Whanganui, 2017: 10.1% (country 7.2%) Whanganui, 2020: 3.3% (country 2.6%) Whanganui, 2023: 11.4% (country 6.1%) 1.9× Coromandel Coromandel, 2017: 12.3% (country 7.2%) Coromandel, 2020: 3.0% (country 2.6%) Coromandel, 2023: 10.4% (country 6.1%) 1.7× West Coast-Tasman West Coast-Tasman, 2017: 9.4% (country 7.2%) West Coast-Tasman, 2020: 3.0% (country 2.6%) West Coast-Tasman, 2023: 9.9% (country 6.1%) 1.6× East Cape East Cape, 2017: 9.9% (country 7.2%) East Cape, 2020: 3.4% (country 2.6%) East Cape, 2023: 9.7% (country 6.1%) 1.6× Rangitīkei Rangitīkei, 2017: 10.4% (country 7.2%) Rangitīkei, 2020: 3.4% (country 2.6%) Rangitīkei, 2023: 9.1% (country 6.1%) 1.5× Kaikōura Kaikōura, 2017: 9.0% (country 7.2%) Kaikōura, 2020: 2.9% (country 2.6%) Kaikōura, 2023: 9.1% (country 6.1%) 1.5× Tauranga Tauranga, 2017: 11.3% (country 7.2%) Tauranga, 2020: 3.6% (country 2.6%) Tauranga, 2023: 8.9% (country 6.1%) 1.5× Mt Maunganui Mt Maunganui, 2017: 10.8% (country 7.2%) Mt Maunganui, 2020: 3.0% (country 2.6%) Mt Maunganui, 2023: 8.7% (country 6.1%) 1.4× Taranaki-King Country Taranaki-King Country, 2017: 9.0% (country 7.2%) Taranaki-King Country, 2020: 2.8% (country 2.6%) Taranaki-King Country, 2023: 8.3% (country 6.1%) 1.4× Wairarapa Wairarapa, 2017: 10.3% (country 7.2%) Wairarapa, 2020: 3.4% (country 2.6%) Wairarapa, 2023: 8.2% (country 6.1%) 1.3× 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Northland Northland, 2017: 13.2% (country 7.2%) Northland, 2020: 5.8% (country 2.6%) Northland, 2023: 14.1% (country 6.1%) 2.3× Whangārei Whangārei, 2017: 14.1% (country 7.2%) Whangārei, 2020: 5.1% (country 2.6%) Whangārei, 2023: 13.1% (country 6.1%) 2.1× Whanganui Whanganui, 2017: 10.1% (country 7.2%) Whanganui, 2020: 3.3% (country 2.6%) Whanganui, 2023: 11.4% (country 6.1%) 1.9× Coromandel Coromandel, 2017: 12.3% (country 7.2%) Coromandel, 2020: 3.0% (country 2.6%) Coromandel, 2023: 10.4% (country 6.1%) 1.7× West Coast-Tasman West Coast-Tasman, 2017: 9.4% (country 7.2%) West Coast-Tasman, 2020: 3.0% (country 2.6%) West Coast-Tasman, 2023: 9.9% (country 6.1%) 1.6× East Cape East Cape, 2017: 9.9% (country 7.2%) East Cape, 2020: 3.4% (country 2.6%) East Cape, 2023: 9.7% (country 6.1%) 1.6× Rangitīkei Rangitīkei, 2017: 10.4% (country 7.2%) Rangitīkei, 2020: 3.4% (country 2.6%) Rangitīkei, 2023: 9.1% (country 6.1%) 1.5× Kaikōura Kaikōura, 2017: 9.0% (country 7.2%) Kaikōura, 2020: 2.9% (country 2.6%) Kaikōura, 2023: 9.1% (country 6.1%) 1.5× Tauranga Tauranga, 2017: 11.3% (country 7.2%) Tauranga, 2020: 3.6% (country 2.6%) Tauranga, 2023: 8.9% (country 6.1%) 1.5× Mt Maunganui Mt Maunganui, 2017: 10.8% (country 7.2%) Mt Maunganui, 2020: 3.0% (country 2.6%) Mt Maunganui, 2023: 8.7% (country 6.1%) 1.4× Taranaki-King Country Taranaki-King Country, 2017: 9.0% (country 7.2%) Taranaki-King Country, 2020: 2.8% (country 2.6%) Taranaki-King Country, 2023: 8.3% (country 6.1%) 1.4× Wairarapa Wairarapa, 2017: 10.3% (country 7.2%) Wairarapa, 2020: 3.4% (country 2.6%) Wairarapa, 2023: 8.2% (country 6.1%) 1.3× 0% 5% 10% 15% Mt Albert Mt Albert, 2017: 3.4% (country 7.2%) Mt Albert, 2020: 1.8% (country 2.6%) Mt Albert, 2023: 3.1% (country 6.1%) 0.5× Botany Botany, 2017: 4.6% (country 7.2%) Botany, 2020: 1.4% (country 2.6%) Botany, 2023: 3.0% (country 6.1%) 0.5× Tāmaki Tāmaki, 2017: 3.9% (country 7.2%) Tāmaki, 2020: 1.6% (country 2.6%) Tāmaki, 2023: 2.9% (country 6.1%) 0.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 3.1% (country 7.2%) Epsom, 2020: 1.5% (country 2.6%) Epsom, 2023: 2.6% (country 6.1%) 0.4× Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 2.3% (country 7.2%) Wellington North, 2020: 1.1% (country 2.6%) Wellington North, 2023: 2.2% (country 6.1%) 0.4× 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Mt Albert Mt Albert, 2017: 3.4% (country 7.2%) Mt Albert, 2020: 1.8% (country 2.6%) Mt Albert, 2023: 3.1% (country 6.1%) 0.5× Botany Botany, 2017: 4.6% (country 7.2%) Botany, 2020: 1.4% (country 2.6%) Botany, 2023: 3.0% (country 6.1%) 0.5× Tāmaki Tāmaki, 2017: 3.9% (country 7.2%) Tāmaki, 2020: 1.6% (country 2.6%) Tāmaki, 2023: 2.9% (country 6.1%) 0.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 3.1% (country 7.2%) Epsom, 2020: 1.5% (country 2.6%) Epsom, 2023: 2.6% (country 6.1%) 0.4× Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 2.3% (country 7.2%) Wellington North, 2020: 1.1% (country 2.6%) Wellington North, 2023: 2.2% (country 6.1%) 0.4× 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% General electorates.
Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.
Show the other 51 electorates NZ First's 2023 party vote by electorate Chatham Islands Auckland Central: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula: 5.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 3.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 5.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 10.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Dunedin: 5.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Cape: 9.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 2.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Hamilton East: 5.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 6.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Henderson: No 2023 figure Hutt South: 5.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 4.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Invercargill: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 9.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Māngere: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 3.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Maunganui: 8.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Napier: 6.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Nelson: 6.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from New Plymouth: 7.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 4.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northland: 14.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Palmerston North: 6.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 5.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitata: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitīkei: 9.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Remutaka: 5.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rotorua: 7.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 5.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Southland: 5.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taieri: 7.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 3.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 2.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 8.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tauranga: 8.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tukituki: 6.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 4.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 7.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 7.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 8.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Waitaki: 7.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 2.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 9.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whanganui: 11.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangaparāoa: 6.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangārei: 13.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 5.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hauraki-Waikato: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 4.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel East Cape Invercargill Kaikōura Napier Northland Rangitata Rangitīkei Selwyn Southland Taieri Taupō Waikato Wairarapa Waitaki West Coast-Tasman Whanganui Hauraki-Waikato Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Auckland Central: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 3.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 10.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 2.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 3.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 4.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 5.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 7.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 3.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 2.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 4.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Whangaparāoa: 6.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany Papakura Waitākere Whangaparāoa Auckland Auckland Central: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 3.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 2.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 3.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 3.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 4.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 5.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 3.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 2.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 4.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Tāmaki Makaurau: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom Glendene Henderson Māngere Maungakiekie Northcote Ōtāhuhu Tāmaki Upper Harbour Auckland CBD Coromandel: 10.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton East: 5.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 6.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 8.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 8.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 7.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton Hutt South: 5.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 9.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Remutaka: 5.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 8.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 2.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hutt South Kenepuru Remutaka Wellington Banks Peninsula: 5.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 5.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 6.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 4.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 5.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 7.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 9.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 5.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula Ilam Wigram Christchurch Hauraki-Waikato: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 4.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 6.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 3.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Māori electorates Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.