Poll average 6.2% 4.3%–8.7% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January +4.7 points
Seats if the election were today 8 0–10 in the middle 80% of runs
Electorate and list seats 0 electorate · 8 list
5% threshold 1.2 points above Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.
Poll average since 27 January Opportunity's poll average Opportunity's poll average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% Opportunity Opportunity's poll average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Feb 2026 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct The 5% line 5% Opportunity Opportunity's poll average 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% Opportunity Opportunity's poll average 0% 10% Mar 2026 May Jul Sep The 5% line 5% Opportunity Where Opportunity's party vote is strongest Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: Opportunity across the country in 2023.
Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 5.9% (country 2.4%) Wellington North, 2020: 3.7% (country 1.5%) Wellington North, 2023: 5.5% (country 2.2%) 2.5× Christchurch Central Christchurch Central, 2017: 3.5% (country 2.4%) Christchurch Central, 2020: 2.2% (country 1.5%) Christchurch Central, 2023: 5.1% (country 2.2%) 2.3× Ilam Ilam, 2017: 3.5% (country 2.4%) Ilam, 2020: 2.0% (country 1.5%) Ilam, 2023: 5.0% (country 2.2%) 2.3× Banks Peninsula Banks Peninsula, 2020: 2.2% (country 1.5%) Banks Peninsula, 2023: 4.8% (country 2.2%) 2.2× Wigram Wigram, 2017: 2.9% (country 2.4%) Wigram, 2020: 2.5% (country 1.5%) Wigram, 2023: 4.7% (country 2.2%) 2.1× Dunedin Dunedin, 2020: 2.8% (country 1.5%) Dunedin, 2023: 4.3% (country 2.2%) 1.9× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 4.6% (country 2.4%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 2.8% (country 1.5%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 4.2% (country 2.2%) 1.9× Mt Albert Mt Albert, 2017: 3.0% (country 2.4%) Mt Albert, 2020: 2.5% (country 1.5%) Mt Albert, 2023: 3.7% (country 2.2%) 1.7× Auckland Central Auckland Central, 2017: 3.1% (country 2.4%) Auckland Central, 2020: 2.1% (country 1.5%) Auckland Central, 2023: 3.5% (country 2.2%) 1.6× Christchurch East Christchurch East, 2017: 2.3% (country 2.4%) Christchurch East, 2020: 1.4% (country 1.5%) Christchurch East, 2023: 3.4% (country 2.2%) 1.5× Hutt South Hutt South, 2017: 3.5% (country 2.4%) Hutt South, 2020: 2.2% (country 1.5%) Hutt South, 2023: 3.3% (country 2.2%) 1.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 2.7% (country 2.4%) Epsom, 2020: 2.0% (country 1.5%) Epsom, 2023: 3.2% (country 2.2%) 1.5× 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Wellington North Wellington North, 2017: 5.9% (country 2.4%) Wellington North, 2020: 3.7% (country 1.5%) Wellington North, 2023: 5.5% (country 2.2%) 2.5× Christchurch Central Christchurch Central, 2017: 3.5% (country 2.4%) Christchurch Central, 2020: 2.2% (country 1.5%) Christchurch Central, 2023: 5.1% (country 2.2%) 2.3× Ilam Ilam, 2017: 3.5% (country 2.4%) Ilam, 2020: 2.0% (country 1.5%) Ilam, 2023: 5.0% (country 2.2%) 2.3× Banks Peninsula Banks Peninsula, 2020: 2.2% (country 1.5%) Banks Peninsula, 2023: 4.8% (country 2.2%) 2.2× Wigram Wigram, 2017: 2.9% (country 2.4%) Wigram, 2020: 2.5% (country 1.5%) Wigram, 2023: 4.7% (country 2.2%) 2.1× Dunedin Dunedin, 2020: 2.8% (country 1.5%) Dunedin, 2023: 4.3% (country 2.2%) 1.9× Wellington Bays Wellington Bays, 2017: 4.6% (country 2.4%) Wellington Bays, 2020: 2.8% (country 1.5%) Wellington Bays, 2023: 4.2% (country 2.2%) 1.9× Mt Albert Mt Albert, 2017: 3.0% (country 2.4%) Mt Albert, 2020: 2.5% (country 1.5%) Mt Albert, 2023: 3.7% (country 2.2%) 1.7× Auckland Central Auckland Central, 2017: 3.1% (country 2.4%) Auckland Central, 2020: 2.1% (country 1.5%) Auckland Central, 2023: 3.5% (country 2.2%) 1.6× Christchurch East Christchurch East, 2017: 2.3% (country 2.4%) Christchurch East, 2020: 1.4% (country 1.5%) Christchurch East, 2023: 3.4% (country 2.2%) 1.5× Hutt South Hutt South, 2017: 3.5% (country 2.4%) Hutt South, 2020: 2.2% (country 1.5%) Hutt South, 2023: 3.3% (country 2.2%) 1.5× Epsom Epsom, 2017: 2.7% (country 2.4%) Epsom, 2020: 2.0% (country 1.5%) Epsom, 2023: 3.2% (country 2.2%) 1.5× 0% 2% 4% 6% East Cape East Cape, 2017: 2.4% (country 2.4%) East Cape, 2020: 0.9% (country 1.5%) East Cape, 2023: 1.1% (country 2.2%) 0.5× Coromandel Coromandel, 2017: 1.7% (country 2.4%) Coromandel, 2020: 0.8% (country 1.5%) Coromandel, 2023: 1.1% (country 2.2%) 0.5× Māngere Māngere, 2017: 0.7% (country 2.4%) Māngere, 2020: 0.4% (country 1.5%) Māngere, 2023: 0.9% (country 2.2%) 0.4× Takanini Takanini, 2020: 0.6% (country 1.5%) Takanini, 2023: 0.8% (country 2.2%) 0.4× Manurewa Manurewa, 2017: 0.7% (country 2.4%) Manurewa, 2020: 0.5% (country 1.5%) Manurewa, 2023: 0.6% (country 2.2%) 0.3× 0% 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% 2.5% East Cape East Cape, 2017: 2.4% (country 2.4%) East Cape, 2020: 0.9% (country 1.5%) East Cape, 2023: 1.1% (country 2.2%) 0.5× Coromandel Coromandel, 2017: 1.7% (country 2.4%) Coromandel, 2020: 0.8% (country 1.5%) Coromandel, 2023: 1.1% (country 2.2%) 0.5× Māngere Māngere, 2017: 0.7% (country 2.4%) Māngere, 2020: 0.4% (country 1.5%) Māngere, 2023: 0.9% (country 2.2%) 0.4× Takanini Takanini, 2020: 0.6% (country 1.5%) Takanini, 2023: 0.8% (country 2.2%) 0.4× Manurewa Manurewa, 2017: 0.7% (country 2.4%) Manurewa, 2020: 0.5% (country 1.5%) Manurewa, 2023: 0.6% (country 2.2%) 0.3× 0% 1% 2% 3% General electorates. In the Māori electorates Opportunity took at most 1.9% in 2023.
Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.
Show the other 51 electorates Opportunity's 2023 party vote by electorate Chatham Islands Auckland Central: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula: 4.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 5.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 3.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Dunedin: 4.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Cape: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 3.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Hamilton East: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 2.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Henderson: No 2023 figure Hutt South: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 5.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Invercargill: 1.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 1.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Māngere: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 0.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 2.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 3.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Maunganui: 2.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Napier: 1.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Nelson: 2.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from New Plymouth: 2.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 2.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 3.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northland: 1.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 1.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Palmerston North: 2.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 1.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitata: 1.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rangitīkei: 1.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Remutaka: 2.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Rotorua: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Southland: 2.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taieri: 2.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 2.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 1.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 1.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tauranga: 2.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tukituki: 1.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 2.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 1.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Waitaki: 2.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 4.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 1.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whanganui: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangaparāoa: 1.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Whangārei: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 4.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hauraki-Waikato: 0.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 0.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 0.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 0.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 1.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 0.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel East Cape Invercargill Kaikōura Napier Northland Rangitata Rangitīkei Selwyn Southland Taieri Taupō Waikato Wairarapa Waitaki West Coast-Tasman Whanganui Hauraki-Waikato Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Tāmaki Makaurau Te Tai Hauāuru Te Tai Tokerau Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Auckland Central: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Coromandel: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 3.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 1.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 0.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 2.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 3.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 2.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 3.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 1.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 1.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Port Waikato: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 2.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Whangaparāoa: 1.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany Papakura Waitākere Whangaparāoa Auckland Auckland Central: 3.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Botany: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from East Coast Bays: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom: 3.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Glendene: No 2023 figure Henderson: No 2023 figure Kaipara ki Mahurangi: 1.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Māngere: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Manurewa: 0.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Maungakiekie: 2.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Albert: 3.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Mt Roskill: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from North Shore: 2.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Northcote: 3.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ōtāhuhu: 1.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Pakuranga: 1.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Papakura: 1.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Takanini: 0.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki: 2.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Upper Harbour: 2.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waitākere: No 2023 figure Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Epsom Glendene Henderson Māngere Maungakiekie Northcote Ōtāhuhu Tāmaki Upper Harbour Auckland CBD Coromandel: 1.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton East: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton West: 2.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taranaki-King Country: 1.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Taupō: 1.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waikato: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hamilton Hutt South: 3.3% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kaikōura: 1.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Kapiti: No 2023 figure Kenepuru: No 2023 figure Remutaka: 2.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wairarapa: 1.6% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington Bays: 4.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wellington North: 5.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Hutt South Kenepuru Remutaka Wellington Banks Peninsula: 4.8% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch Central: 5.1% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Christchurch East: 3.4% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ilam: 5.0% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Selwyn: 2.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waimakariri: 2.2% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from West Coast-Tasman: 1.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Wigram: 4.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Banks Peninsula Ilam Wigram Christchurch Hauraki-Waikato: 0.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: 0.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Tāmaki Makaurau: 0.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Hauāuru: 0.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tokerau: 0.7% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga: 1.9% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Waiariki: 0.5% of the party vote in 2023, in the seat it came from Te Tai Tonga Waiariki Māori electorates Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.