Te Pāti Māori

Poll average: 1.1% 0.8%–2.2% in 90% of runs
Since 27 January: −1.9 points
Seats if the election were today: 3 All 3 from electorates it is assumed to win
Electorate and list seats: 3 electorate · 0 list
5% threshold: 3.9 points below
Grouping: Green + Labour + Te Pāti Māori: 55 seats, a majority in 5% of runs

Poll sampling error plus a typical election-day polling miss: this share of runs is not a forecast of the election.

Electorates it's assumed to win

Electorate	2023 margin	Share of runs
Hauraki-WaikatoUncertain: close in seat runs · local factor	2,911 votes	74%
Te Tai HauāuruUncertain: close in seat runs	9,162 votes	68%
Waiariki	15,891 votes	98%

Poll average since 27 January

Te Pāti Māori's poll average

Where Te Pāti Māori's party vote is strongest

Filled: 2023. Hollow: 2020, then 2017 (faint). Dashed line: Te Pāti Māori across the country in 2023.

Where it's weakest

General electorates.

Every electorate

Each figure is the party vote in that seat's predecessor. Stronger colour means a higher share than across the country that year; strongest is twice its national share or more.

Electorate	2017	2020	2023
Waiariki	19.7%	17.8%	38.3%
Te Tai Hauāuru	15.1%	15.7%	35.7%
Hauraki-Waikato	11.6%	12.3%	33.0%
Tāmaki Makaurau	11.1%	12.9%	30.2%
Te Tai Tokerau	6.5%	10.3%	27.0%
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti	13.2%	12.2%	25.3%
Te Tai Tonga	8.5%	8.8%	22.9%
Wellington North	0.5%	0.5%	2.4%
Wellington Bays	0.5%	0.4%	2.4%
Rotorua	1.3%	0.9%	2.3%
East Cape	0.8%	0.8%	2.3%
Māngere	2.0%	0.9%	2.1%
Manurewa	1.1%	0.8%	2.1%
Hamilton West	0.6%	0.5%	1.8%
Palmerston North	0.4%	0.5%	1.7%
Mt Albert	0.5%	0.5%	1.6%
Auckland Central	0.4%	0.3%	1.6%
Northland	0.3%	0.4%	1.6%
Whanganui	0.4%	0.5%	1.5%
Hamilton East	0.6%	0.5%	1.5%

Show the other 51 electorates

Electorate	2017	2020	2023
Dunedin	No figure	0.3%	1.4%
New Plymouth	0.6%	0.5%	1.4%
Rangitīkei	0.5%	0.4%	1.4%
Whangārei	0.3%	0.3%	1.4%
Ōtāhuhu	No figure	0.7%	1.4%
Hutt South	0.4%	0.4%	1.3%
Taupō	0.7%	0.4%	1.3%
Mt Maunganui	0.5%	0.4%	1.3%
Remutaka	0.5%	0.4%	1.2%
Taranaki-King Country	0.5%	0.5%	1.2%
Takanini	No figure	0.4%	1.1%
Christchurch East	0.4%	0.3%	1.1%
Papakura	0.6%	0.3%	1.1%
Tauranga	0.5%	0.3%	1.1%
Christchurch Central	0.4%	0.3%	1.0%
Wairarapa	0.5%	0.3%	1.0%
Tukituki	0.3%	0.4%	1.0%
Waikato	0.4%	0.3%	1.0%
Maungakiekie	0.8%	0.4%	0.9%
Napier	0.4%	0.3%	0.9%
Port Waikato	No figure	0.3%	0.9%
Wigram	0.4%	0.3%	0.8%
Nelson	0.2%	0.2%	0.8%
Upper Harbour	0.3%	0.4%	0.8%
Mt Roskill	0.5%	0.4%	0.8%
Banks Peninsula	No figure	0.3%	0.8%
Coromandel	0.2%	0.3%	0.8%
Northcote	0.4%	0.2%	0.8%
Epsom	0.3%	0.3%	0.7%
Invercargill	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%
Tāmaki	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%
West Coast-Tasman	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%
Kaipara ki Mahurangi	No figure	0.3%	0.7%
Ilam	0.4%	0.3%	0.6%
Taieri	No figure	0.1%	0.6%
Kaikōura	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
Waimakariri	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
Botany	0.6%	0.2%	0.5%
North Shore	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Pakuranga	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
Selwyn	0.2%	0.1%	0.5%
Southland	No figure	0.1%	0.5%
Whangaparāoa	No figure	0.2%	0.5%
Waitaki	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%
Rangitata	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%
East Coast Bays	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Glendene	No figure	No figure	No figure
Henderson	No figure	No figure	No figure
Kapiti	No figure	No figure	No figure
Kenepuru	No figure	No figure	No figure
Waitākere	No figure	No figure	No figure

Te Pāti Māori's 2023 party vote by electorate

Shaded by the 2023 party vote in each seat's predecessor; striped seats are new, with no 2023 figure.